Bitcoin struggles to reclaim $70,000 ahead of the US election, but analysts agree that volatility will be present before and after the election result is announced.

As the U.S. presidential election approaches, voters will cast their final ballots in the next 48 hours. A unique focus of this election season is the cryptocurrency industry, with the two main candidates—Kamala Harris and Donald Trump—making the future of digital assets a significant campaign issue. As the election nears, market analysts and investors are closely monitoring Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, watching their reactions following the announcement of election results. This is because the performance of cryptocurrencies may determine whether the bullish momentum can continue into November and December. Interestingly, history shows that the price of Bitcoin has consistently served as a price floor during parabolic rallies on U.S. Election Day. The election results could play a crucial role in driving or hindering the anticipated bullish momentum expected to last until November and December. In particular, candidates have expressed their views on cryptocurrency regulation and the potential role of blockchain technology in the U.S. economy. This resurgence of political interest indicates that cryptocurrencies have firmly entered mainstream policy discussions, and depending on who wins the presidential election, regulatory changes may occur. However, history suggests that Bitcoin is likely to experience a surge post-election. Notably, Bitcoin's price has never been lower than its price on Election Day and has exhibited parabolic growth after every U.S. election. This positive Bitcoin price trend has been revealed through crypto media accounts on the social platform X. According to the Bitcoin price chart below, during the last three election dates, Bitcoin's price has served as a price floor before witnessing a parabolic rise. For instance, in the last election in 2020, Bitcoin's price was $13,569. After the election, Bitcoin experienced a rise in the following months, eventually breaking past $69,000 in 2021. It is worth noting that the $13,569 price point during the 2020 election even acted as support during the bear market in 2022, further underscoring the significance of Bitcoin's price on Election Day. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin's price movements on Election Day may lead to a parabolic rise in the remaining two months of 2024 and early 2025. Interestingly, it can be argued that Bitcoin's current state is more likely to experience a parabolic rise than during the previous three elections. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,700. Recent price trends show that Bitcoin has broken through $73,000 in the past few days and has re-tested the historical high of $73,737 set in March 2024. Considering the performance on Election Day, we may see Bitcoin break this level before the end of November. A breakthrough of the historical high would open up space for Bitcoin's surge, potentially reaching prices as high as $300,000 before the next election cycle.

TRUMP

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With the U.S. presidential election approaching, voters will cast their final ballots in the next 48 hours. A unique focus of this election season is the cryptocurrency industry, with the two major candidates—Kamala Harris and Donald Trump—making the future of digital assets an important campaign issue. As the election nears, market analysts and investors are closely monitoring Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, observing their reactions following the announcement of election results. This is because the performance of cryptocurrencies may determine whether the bullish momentum can continue into November and December. Interestingly, history shows that Bitcoin's price on U.S. Election Day has consistently acted as a price bottom during parabolic rallies. Bitcoin's price on Election Day could lay the groundwork for a parabolic rally. The election results could play a crucial role in driving or hindering the expected bullish momentum that is likely to persist into November and December. Specifically, the candidates have articulated their views on cryptocurrency regulation and the potential role of blockchain technology in the U.S. economy. This resurgence of political interest indicates that cryptocurrencies have firmly entered mainstream policy discussions, and regulatory changes could emerge depending on who wins the presidential election. However, history suggests that Bitcoin is poised for a surge after the election. Notably, Bitcoin's price has never fallen below its price on Election Day and has exhibited parabolic rises following each U.S. election. This positive Bitcoin price trend has been revealed through cryptocurrency media accounts on the social platform X. According to the Bitcoin price chart below, during the past three election dates, Bitcoin's price has served as a price bottom before experiencing a parabolic rise. For instance, in the previous election in 2020, Bitcoin's price was $13,569. After the election, Bitcoin experienced a rise in the following months and eventually broke through the $69,000 high in 2021. Notably, the $13,569 price point during the 2020 election even served as a support level during the bear market in 2022, further highlighting the significance of Bitcoin's Election Day price. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin's price movement on Election Day could lead to a parabolic rise in the remaining two months of 2024 and early 2025. Interestingly, it can be argued that Bitcoin's current condition is more likely to experience a parabolic rise than during the past three elections. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin's trading price is $68,700. Recent price movements indicate that Bitcoin has recently broken through $73,000 and retested the historical high of $73,737 set in March 2024. Considering the price movement on Election Day, we may see Bitcoin surpass this level before the end of November. Breaking through the historical high would open up space for Bitcoin's rise, potentially reaching prices of up to $300,000 before the next election cycle.

Countdown to the U.S. Election: Bitcoin Price History Indicates a Rebound Post-Election

Bitcoin is expected to have a post-election breakout, but it needs to hold $70,000 as support. Analysts predict a rally after the US elections, with potential for new all-time highs. However, some believe the current rally lacks the macroeconomic conditions for a BTC peak. Key price levels to watch are $70,200 and $69,000.

Bitcoin is on track for a post-election breakout according to analysts and historical chart patterns, but the most immediate hurdle is to trade above $70,200. Bitcoin ( BTC ) price could be set for a rally following the 2024 presidential elections in the United States. Based on the previous years, Bitcoin price saw a breakout after the US presidential elections in 2020, 2016 and 2012, according to a chart shared by Bitcoin trader Mr. Anderson, in a Nov. 4 X post : Other analysts expect the post-election volatility to lead to a Bitcoin breakout to new all-time highs. Notably, Bitfinex analysts predict a Bitcoin rally to $80,000 before the end of 2024, driven by the options market structure and the prospect of a Republican presidential victory. The analysts told Cointelegraph: “Options market positioning indicates that over the past few weeks, end-of-year options have seen a significant rise in call open interest. The December 27th expiry and calls with an $80,000 strike price have been the primary areas of interest.” Other analysts say that Bitcoin is used as a proxy for a potential Trump victory and that this current “Trump hedge” rally is lacking the fundamental macroeconomic conditions to result in an all-time high for BTC. Related: Bitcoin’s fair value: BTC may never fall below $60K, says economist To confirm a breakout to a new all-time high, Bitcoin needs to surpass $70,200, according to popular analyst Titan of Crypto, who wrote in a Nov. 5 X post : “Bitcoin Key Level: $70,200. After breaking Tenkan, the price often retests it and right now, Tenkan sits at $70,200. BTC needs to reclaim this level to regain bullish momentum.” In Ichimoku or cloud analysis, the Tenkan line signals a key conversion line for the underlying asset. If Bitcoin remains above the Tenkan line, it will likely signal more upward momentum, based on the indicator. Other analysts see $69,000 as a key price level, that needs to turn into support before a breakout, according to popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital. The analyst wrote in a Nov. 5 X post : “Bitcoin is going to need to turn $69,000 into new support to confirm a breakout from this Bull Flag.” On Oct. 28, Bitcoin surpassed the $70,000 psychological resistance for the first time since June 10, with BTC price just 3.77% below its all-time high of about $73,800. Related: Financial institutions want Bitcoin and ETFs: Blockstream’s Adam Back This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. 

Bitcoin Set for Post-Election Breakout, $70K Support is Key

BlockBeats News, November 5th, according to Cointelegraph, a Bitfinex analyst stated, 'Despite the market widely expecting increased volatility leading up to the U.S. election on November 5th, many market participants appear indecisive and have adopted a wait-and-see attitude. However, significant volatility is still anticipated in the short term after the election, which could either 'drive significant moves,' or if absent, may serve as a warning signal for a 'deeper correction' in Bitcoin over a shorter time frame.'

BlockBeats News, November 5th, according to Cointelegraph, a Bitfinex analyst stated, "Despite the market widely expecting increased volatility leading up to the U.S. election on November 5th, many market participants appear indecisive and have adopted a wait-and-see attitude. However, significant volatility is still anticipated in the short term after the election, which could either 'drive significant moves,' or if absent, may serve as a warning signal for a 'deeper correction' in Bitcoin over a shorter time frame."

Bitfinex Analyst: Market Takes Wait-and-See Attitude Before US Election, Post-Election Volatility Could Soar

Post-election price volatility could set the stage for Bitcoin’s rally to a new record high above $73,800. Bitcoin could see heightened price volatility following the United States presidential election, but analysts view this as a positive development for its price trajectory. Bitcoin could benefit from a victory by former President Donald Trump, who is generally viewed as a more pro-crypto candidate. A potential Trump win could pave the way for the next Bitcoin rally. Regardless of the election results, the altcoin market is expected to face more downside.

Bitcoin could see heightened price volatility following the United States presidential election, but analysts view this as a positive development for its price trajectory. As of 8:05 am UTC on election day , Bitcoin ( BTC ) remains subdued under its old all-time high of $69,000. The current low volatility in Bitcoin’s price indicates cautious market sentiment ahead of the election results, according to analysts at Bitfinex. However, an increase in volatility could contribute to Bitcoin’s price appreciation, Bitfinex analysts said. They noted: “If the expected volatility fails to materialize, it may indicate a more substantial issue at play and a much deeper correction for BTC on the lower timeframes. In terms of the options market, apathy to price movements often reflects a more bearish sentiment than strong put buying.” Bitcoin could benefit from a victory by former President Donald Trump, who is generally viewed as a more pro-crypto candidate. A potential Trump win could pave the way for the next Bitcoin rally, although analysts at Sygnum said this could still happen if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidency. They wrote : “[Post-election] the market will continue its upward trajectory in anticipation of the positive regulatory and legislative developments in the US once the new president takes office next January. This is likely to be the case irrespective of the election outcome; however, as market sentiment favors a Trump win, the rally may be more pronounced under this scenario.” The Bitcoin price was just $200 shy of logging a new all-time high ahead of the election when it rose above $73,600 on Oct. 29 , its highest level since March. Related: Stablecoins essential for US dollar’s future, says Paxos CEO Numerous investors have called Bitcoin’s October rally a “Trump pump ,” as it was seemingly correlated with Trump’s rising election-winning odds. However, the so-called “Trump trade” could come to an end for Bitcoin after the elections, Bitfinex analysts explained: “Our base case has remained that the “Trump Tradeˮ only pertains to Bitcoin as far as pre-election speculation is concerned.” Other analysts believe that Bitcoin is used as a proxy for a potential Trump victory. However, this current “Trump hedge” rally is lacking the fundamental macroeconomic conditions to result in a new all-time high for BTC. Harris vs. Trump 2024: What’s at Stake for the Crypto Market? Source: YouTube Related: Coinbase hit with $300M token listing allegations by Sun, Cronje Regardless of the election results, the altcoin market — comprising cryptocurrencies outside of Bitcoin and Ether ( ETH ) — is expected to face more downside. Altcoins, specifically those outside the 10 largest tokens, have seen significant downside, which could extend after the election, according to Bitfinex analysts, who explained: “We believe that the altcoin market may experience further declines relative to Bitcoin in the mid-term, primarily due to the apathy of speculators. This general disinterest among investors suggests that upward momentum in altcoins is unlikely without a significant catalyst.” While analysts are widely expecting an altcoin season , the potential returns could be weaker this cycle compared to previous historical altcoin rallies. Magazine: Microsoft set to vote on Bitcoin, Peter Todd hiding, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Oct. 20–26 

Bitcoin Price Outlook and Potential Impact of the 2024 US Election

Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped over 1% in the past 24 hours, retreating after briefly approaching $70,000. With the U.S. elections and the Federal Reserve meeting approaching, this week is crucial for market dynamics. Changes in market sentiment could lead BTC to either break through $70,000 or experience a significant decline. Almost all major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Ripple (XRP), have seen significant declines, while Dogecoin (DOGE) has risen over 8% against the trend. Analysts predict that the election results will have a short-term impact on BTC prices, potentially rising to between $80,000 and $90,000 if Trump wins. Meanwhile, Mt. Gox has transferred $2.20 billion worth of BTC to an unknown wallet, sparking discussions about its debt repayment strategy. A crypto alliance composed of companies like Kraken and Robinhood has launched a new stablecoin network aimed at accelerating the use and adoption of stablecoins.

Table of ContentsA Lot At Stake For CryptoAnalysts Predict Bitcoin’s Post-Election PriceMt. Gox Shifts $2.2B BTC To Unknown WalletsCrypto Consortium Launches Global Stablecoin NetworkBitcoin (BTC) Price AnalysisEthereum (ETH) Price AnalysisSolana (SOL) Price AnalysisToncoin (TON) Price AnalysisDogwifhat (WIF) Price AnalysisBittensor (TAO) Price AnalysisAptos (APT) Price AnalysisBitcoin (BTC) is down just over 1% in the past 24 hours, declining after briefly flirting with the $70,000 mark. The current week is crucial in dictating market dynamics, with the US elections and Fed meeting set to commence. If market sentiment turns positive, BTC could surge past $70,000 and potentially set a new all-time high this week. On the other hand, if market sentiment turns negative, we could see a substantial price decline. With the elections just hours away, the crypto market is on edge.Almost all major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), Toncoin (TON), Avalanche (AVAX), and Chainlink (LINK) registered noticeable declines as the crypto markets brace for election results. On the other hand, Dogecoin (DOGE) defied expectations and is up over 8% in the past 24 hours. The overall crypto market cap registered a decline of 1.11% and is currently at $2.23 trillion.Speaking about the current market sentiments,ChangeNOWCMO Pauline Shangett stated,A Lot At Stake For CryptoDemocrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump made one final push in the final hours before election day with last-minute campaigns in crucial battleground states. Harris spent the hours leading to election day with last-minute rallies in Scranton, Allentown, Pittsburg, and Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Trump focused on the battleground states of North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.Market watchers expectBitcoin (BTC)to experience considerable volatility as campaigning winds down. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has already registered a sharp dip between October 29 and November 3. However, while the price has struggled, overall market sentiment remains bullish. One of the hottest topics in the election has been crypto regulations, prompting both candidates to speak about crypto on the campaign trail. Trump has positioned himself as a champion of crypto and pledged to make the United States the crypto capital of the world.On the other hand, Kamala Harris spoke about crypto during a Wall Street fundraiser, promising a safe business environment with consistent and transparent rules and regulations and support for emerging industries such as AI. Harris’s advisors have also held meetings with major crypto companies to discuss industry-friendly regulation, indicating a willingness to engage with stakeholders. Meanwhile, crypto whales are betting big on a Trump victory.Analysts Predict Bitcoin’s Post-Election PriceAnalysts from Bernstein have predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) prices could swing wildly following the results of the presidential elections. Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani stated the election will have a short-term impact on crypto, particularly on the price of BTC. BTC could surge to $80,000 or $90,000 by December if pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump is victorious. This means it would shatter its previous all-time high set in March.On the other hand, if Kamala Harris secures victory, BTC could drop to $50,000, a level not seen since the beginning of the year. Despite short-term struggles, Bernstein doubled down on their prediction that BTC would touch $200,000 by the end of 2025, regardless of the election result. Others, such as Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick, stated that he expected BTC to finish this year at $75,000 if Harris wins and $125,000 if Donald Trump wins.Mt. Gox Shifts $2.2B BTC To Unknown WalletsDefunct crypto exchange Mt.Gox transferred $2.2 billion worth of BTC to unknown wallets, according to data from Arkham Intelligence. Arkham revealed the defunct exchange moved the BTC from its cold wallet to two unknown addresses in separate transactions. Around 30.3K BTC was transferred to one wallet, while another 2K BTC was transferred to Mt.Gox’s cold wallet and then moved to another unknown wallet.The latest transfers come days after the exchange had moved 500 BTC worth $35 million into two unknown wallets. The movement of funds has sparked intense discussion about the platform’s strategy to settle its debts with creditors.Crypto Consortium Launches Global Stablecoin NetworkA consortium of crypto companies, including Kraken, Robinhood, and Galaxy Digital, introduced a new stablecoin pegged to the US Dollar. The newly launched Global Dollar Network aims to accelerate the use and adoption of stablecoins and promote an asset providing economic benefits to stakeholders. The network is based on a new stablecoin called USDG. The stablecoin will be issued by Paxos and governed by a committee of representatives from the network partners, including Anchorage Digital, Bullish, and Nuvei. Paxos CEO Charles Cascarilla stated,Bitcoin (BTC) Price AnalysisAs mentioned earlierBitcoin (BTC)is expected to experience significant volatility as markets await election results. However, we can look at historical performances to gauge BTC’s price movements following the election. Historically, BTC has always rallied after an election since 2009. An analysis of historical data shows that election-day price has never been revisited, with peaks typically occurring within a year. Analysts expect a long-term rally if the election results spark sustained interest. The publication of the jobless claims data on November 7 is also expected to impact the price of BTC. An increase in these numbers could suggest a softening labor market, impacting consumer spending and investment in traditional assets. This could increase BTC’s appeal as an investment if investors look to hedge against economic volatility.The Federal Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) is another event that could impact BTC. During the last FOMC meeting, the Fed slashed interest rates by 50 basis points as inflation cooled to 2.4%, moving closer to its 2% target. However, with unemployment numbers rising, there could be emerging challenges in the labor market. Market watchers speculate the Fed will slash rates by 25 basis points. A rate cut will be a bullish signal for BTC as lower rates reduce the appeal of traditional investments.Meanwhile, the decline in prices led to widespread liquidations, with a total of $193 million in long and short positions wiped out. Around $101 million in long positions and $91 million in short positions were liquidated. BTC suffered the brunt of these liquidations, totaling around $52 million ($21.05 million long and $30 million short). Spot Bitcoin ETFs also registered their first outflow in November after witnessing significant inflows in October. ETFs saw inflows of $827 million and $896 million on October 29 and 30.As we can see in the price chart, BTC has struggled to build momentum after reaching a high of $73,512 last Tuesday and teasing a new all-time high. The price turned bearish on Wednesday thanks to intense selling pressure, dropping marginally to $72,358. Bearish sentiment intensified on Thursday as BTC dropped almost 3% to $70,307. Buyers attempted a recovery on Friday, looking to prevent a drop below $70,000. As a result, BTC rose to an intraday high of $71,632 before losing momentum, allowing sellers to take over and drive BTC below $70,000 to $69,562. BTC registered a marginal increase on Saturday as bearish sentiment prevented substantial price movements.Source:TradingViewBTC reported increased volatility on Sunday as buyers and sellers struggled to establish control. Ultimately, sellers gained the upper hand as BTC to $68,907 after a drop of 0.97%. The current week began with BTC slipping below the 20-day SMA after a fall of 1.49% and settling at $67,882. However, the price has recovered during the ongoing session thanks to strong support at $68,000. BTC is currently up by 1.31% and trading around $68,800 as buyers look to push it back above $69,000. Analysts expect BTC to make significant moves following the election and move to $75,000-$80,000 if Trump wins the election and more optimistic predictions hitting the $100,000 mark. Alternatively, the price could drop to $50,000 should Harris win the election.Ethereum (ETH) Price AnalysisEthereum (ETH)is looking to bounce back above $2,500 after rebounding from its support level of $2,400 as buyers look to reverse a substantial decline. ETH started the previous week positively but faced significant volatility as it approached the $2,700 mark. It climbed to an intraday high of $2,722 but lost momentum, falling below $2,700 and settling at $2,659. Sellers returned to the market on Thursday as bearish sentiment intensified. As a result, ETH dropped over 5%, slipping below the 20 and 50-day SMAs and settling at $2,516. ETH reported a surge in volatility on Friday as buyers and sellers struggled to establish control. Buyers attempted a recovery and pushed ETH back above $2,600, while sellers looked to drag it below $2,500. Ultimately, ETH registered a marginal drop and settled at $2,512.Source:TradingViewETH slipped below $2,500 on Saturday after registering a drop of 0.79% and settling at $2,492. Bearish sentiment intensified on Sunday as ETH fell to an intraday low of $2,410. However, it recovered from this level to settle at $2,456, a decline of 1.43%. Buyers attempted another recovery on Monday as ETH rose to $2,490 before falling back in the red and dropping to $2,397 after a drop of 2.41%. However, ETH has rebounded from its support level during the ongoing session and is currently up by almost 2%, trading at $2,442. Buyers will look to build momentum and push ETH back above $2,500 should market conditions remain favorable. However, if sellers gain the upper hand, ETH could slip back to $2,400. A breach of this level could result in ETH dropping to $2,300.Solana (SOL) Price AnalysisSolana (SOL) has bounced back above $160 after dropping to an intraday low of $155 on Monday. SOL has been in the red since Wednesday after failing to stay above $180 a day prior. With strong selling pressure at $180, SOL fell back, dropping 2.44% on Wednesday and settling at $174. Bearish sentiment intensified on Thursday as SOL dropped by 3.67%, slipping below $170 and settling at $168. Buyers attempted a recovery on Friday as SOL rose to an intraday high of $166. However, buyers lost momentum after reaching this level, allowing sellers to take control and drive SOL down by 1.45% to $166.Source:TradingViewThe weekend began with a significant spike in volatility as sellers sought to drive the price below the 20-day SMA while buyers attempted to counter the selling pressure. Ultimately, neither gained the upper hand, and SOL remained at $166. However, sellers took control on Sunday and drove SOL to an intraday low of $157. SOL recovered from this level and climbed above $160 to settle at $162. Selling pressure intensified on Monday as SOL slipped below $160 after a drop of almost 3% and settled at $157. However, the current session has seen a strong recovery, with SOL back above $160 after an increase of 2.53% and currently trading around $162. Buyers will look to retain control and push SOL back towards $170. A break above this level could see the price retest the resistance at $180.Toncoin (TON) Price AnalysisToncoin (TON) continues to trade in a downward trajectory as it struggles to go back above $5 and the 20-day SMA. It also faces significant volatility as sellers prevent a push above resistance levels. As we can see in the price chart, the 20-day SMA is acting as a descending level of resistance. Bearish sentiment prevails, as evidenced by TON settling lower highs. TON attempted to push above the 20-day SMA at the beginning of the previous week but was unsuccessful, thanks to strong selling pressure above $5. With selling pressure increasing, TON registered a substantial drop of over 4%, slipping below $5 and settling at $4.85.Source:TradingViewHowever, it recovered on Friday, registering a marginal increase and settling at $4.89. The weekend saw volatility return to the market as buyers and sellers struggled to establish control. TON rose to an intraday high of $5.08 on Saturday but could not push above the 20-day SMA, losing momentum and settling at $4.91 after registering a marginal increase. Sellers attempted to drag the price towards $4.50 on Sunday as TON dropped to an intraday low of $4.67. However, it recovered from this level and registered a marginal increase. Bearish sentiment intensified on Monday after yet another failed attempt to push above the 20-day SMA. As we can see in the price chart, TON rose to an intraday high of $5.10 but lost momentum, allowing sellers to take control and drive the price down almost 4% to $4.73.The current session saw buyers attempt another recovery before being pegged back once again. TON is currently down almost 3% and trading around $4.60.Dogwifhat (WIF) Price AnalysisDogwifhat (WIF) is looking to reverse a substantial decline that led to it slipping below crucial support levels and the 20, 50, and 200-day SMAs. WIF’s latest drop began in the middle of the previous week as it failed to stay above the 20-day SMA on Tuesday despite reaching an intraday high of $2.69. The price turned bearish on Wednesday, dropping by 1.27% to $2.57, settling just above the 20-day SMA. Bearish sentiment increased substantially on Thursday as WIF dropped almost 8%, slipping below the 20-day SMA and settling at $2.38. WIF continued to decline on Friday, falling nearly 8% to slip below the 50 and 200-day SMAs and settle at $2.19.Source:TradingViewSaturday saw a reduction in selling pressure as WIF dropped by 0.99% to $2.17. However, sellers were back in control on Sunday as WIF slipped below $2 to hit an intraday low of $1.96 before recovering to reclaim $2 and settle at $2.07 after a decline of 4.69%. WIF slipped below $2 on Monday, dropping over 7% and settling at $1.92. However, it has made a strong recovery during the ongoing session and is currently up over 7% and trading at $2.05. Buyers will look to build momentum and keep WIF above $2. On the other hand, if sellers can push WIF below this level, it could drop to $1.60.Bittensor (TAO) Price AnalysisBittensor (TAO) has been in the red since slipping below the 50-day SMA on Wednesday as sellers continued to dominate the market. As we can see in the price chart, TAO slipped below the 50-day SMA and $500 on Wednesday after a drop of just over 5% and settled at $493. Sellers continued to control the market on Thursday as TAO fell by 1.99% to $484 and $462 on Friday after a drop of 4.41%. TAO remained bearish over the weekend, dropping 5.40% on Saturday to settle at $437. Sellers attempted to drag TAO below $400 on Sunday as it fell to an intraday low of $407.Source:TradingViewHowever, it recovered from this level, settling at $434, registering only a marginal decline. The current week began with bearish sentiment persisting as TAO dropped to $418. However, despite the bearish sentiment, TAO has recovered during the ongoing session. Currently, TAO is up 3.24% and trading at $432.Aptos (APT) Price AnalysisAptos (APT) is also looking to reverse significant selling pressure and push back above key levels as it mounts a recovery during the ongoing session. APT’s latest decline started on Wednesday after it failed to go above $10, allowing sellers to take over and push it down by 1.84% to $9.84. Selling pressure intensified on Thursday as APT slipped below the 20-day SMA and settled at $9.08 after a drop of almost 8%. Friday saw APT slip below $9 after a drop of 1.57% and settle at $8.94.Source:TradingViewThe weekend saw an increase in bearish sentiment as APT slipped below the 50-day SMA after a drop of almost 4% and settled at $8.61. Selling pressure increased on Sunday as APT fell nearly 5% to an intraday low of $7.84 before recovering and climbing above $8 to settle at $8.19. The current week began with a considerable uptick in volatility as sellers looked to drive APT below $8. As a result, APT fell to an intraday low of $7.73 before recovering and pushing back above $8 to settle at $8.06. The current session sees APT up by almost 2%, as buyers look to reverse the current bearish sentiment and push back toward $9.Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: Bitcoin Price Volatility and Election Impact

On Wednesday, the cryptocurrency price reached an all-time high, initially leading us to believe that we had underestimated the potential of the spot market to surge before the election. However, the price ultimately failed to sustain its peak and quickly retreated, with the $70,000 price point re-emerging as the main resistance level.Key Indicators: (October 28, 4 PM -> November 4, 4 PM Hong Kong Time) BTC/USD price increased by +0.15% ($68,500 -> $68,600), ETH/USD price decreased by -2.4% ($2,520 -> $2,460). BTC/USD year-end (December) ATM volatility rose by +3.7 points (54.3 -> 58.0), while year-end 25 delta skew dropped by -0.6 points (3.7 -> 3.1)Overview of Spot Technical Indicators: On Wednesday, the cryptocurrency price reached an all-time high, initially leading us to believe that we had underestimated the potential of the spot market to surge before the election. However, the price ultimately failed to sustain its peak and quickly retreated, with the $70,000 price point re-emerging as the main resistance level. Meanwhile, the peak price set will become the target for the next round of market competition, provided Trump wins the election. Currently, we believe that over the next few days, the price may fluctuate between $66,000 and $70,000 until the election situation guides the next major trend. If Harris wins, the price may break down through the flag support level of $63,500 to $64,000 and decline to $60,000. It is even possible to slide below the support range to around $54,000 in the coming days. On the other hand, if Trump wins, the price may break upwards past $74,000, with the potential to rise to between $77,000 and $78,000.Market Theme: With the fluctuations in the odds for the U.S. election on Polymarket, the trading activity in the cryptocurrency sector has increased. When the odds of Trump winning rose to 67%, the BTC/USD spot price briefly surpassed $73,600, setting a new all-time high. Subsequently, when the weekend polls pushed the odds back to 55%, the price retreated and tested down to $67,500. The odds of the Republican Party dominating seats also fell from 48% to 37%. Although the gap in odds is narrowing, the price movements across various markets still reflect bullish sentiment and preparation for a Trump victory. The U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data was reported at 12,000, far below the expected 100,000. However, the market largely dismissed this, attributing it to recent hurricanes and labor strikes. The BTC/USD spot market saw some fresh inflows after the data release, briefly pushing the price up to $71,500, but then giving back the entire gain. The market is taking a cautious approach to chasing the price during the election period. Microstrategy announced a three-year plan to invest $42 billion in Bitcoin during last week's earnings report, primarily raising funds through issuing stocks and convertible bonds to increase its Bitcoin holdings. While this should have a positive impact on prices in the medium term, the short-term price trend is mainly influenced by the election.BTC Implied Volatility: This week's actual volatility has increased, primarily due to changes in Polymarket election odds. The odds fluctuated between 58% to 67% and then back down to 54% (with Trump in the lead). High-frequency actual volatility rose to a moderate level in the 40s, which must be acknowledged as not particularly high historically for Bitcoin, but is significantly above the levels seen in recent weeks. Additionally, the price changes following the settlement date of November 1 show that the market's short gamma exposure is increasing ahead of the election. The level of implied volatility this week has received good support as the market has seen a wave of demand for options expiring in November, mainly targeting the expiration date after the U.S. election. Demand has focused on upward strike prices between $75,000 and $80,000, but we have also seen some pure trading volatility straddles and spreads. Influenced by substantial demand, volatility has rebounded from recent lows. The market's pricing of event volatility on election day dropped to recent lows over the weekend, as the evident high rolling volatility data and theta data encouraged retail investors to hold short positions over the weekend. Given that the volatility for straddles expiring the Friday after the election and FOMC is only at a 7% premium, we believe that holding long gamma in event volatility should have sufficient profit potential. A mere change from 67% to 54% in odds prompted the price to drop from a high of $73,500 to a low of $67,500 last week, suggesting that it should not be difficult for the price to rise to $75,000 if Trump wins or fall to $60,000 if Harris wins.Skew/Kurtosis: This week's skew continues to decline, seemingly tracking the movements of the spot price and changes in election odds. The skew for the November 8 expiration has actually reversed downward quite sharply, reflecting the market's preparations for a Trump victory and the belief that if Harris unexpectedly wins, it would lead to a larger downside in prices. Kurtosis has gradually increased from its low this week, as buyers have appeared on both sides of the real-time price, especially for the November expiration. Wishing everyone good luck in the coming week! You can use the SignalPlus trading indicator feature at t.signalplus.com for more real-time crypto insights. If you want to receive our updates instantly, feel free to follow our Twitter account @SignalPlusCN, or join our WeChat group (add assistant WeChat: SignalPlus123), Telegram group, and Discord community to interact with more friends. SignalPlus Official Website: https://www.signalplus.com

MAG7.SSI

Key Indicators: (October 28, 4 PM -> November 4, 4 PM Hong Kong Time) BTC/USD price increased by +0.15% ($68,500 -> $68,600), ETH/USD price decreased by -2.4% ($2,520 -> $2,460). BTC/USD end-of-year (December) ATM volatility increased by +3.7 points (54.3 -> 58.0), while the end-of-year 25 delta skew decreased by -0.6 points (3.7 -> 3.1). Overview of Spot Technical Indicators: On Wednesday, the cryptocurrency price reached an all-time high, initially leading us to believe that we had underestimated the potential of the spot market before the election. However, the price ultimately failed to sustain at the peak and quickly retreated, with the $70,000 price level becoming the main resistance. Meanwhile, the newly established highest price will serve as the target for the next round of market competition, provided that Trump wins the election. Currently, we believe that in the coming days, the price may fluctuate between $66,000 and $70,000 until the election results indicate the next major direction. If Harris wins, the price may break downward through the flag support level of $63,500 to $64,000, descending towards $60,000. It is even possible for it to slide below the support range towards $54,000 in the coming days. On the other hand, if Trump wins, the price could break upward through $74,000, with potential to rise to between $77,000 and $78,000. Market Theme: With the fluctuations in betting odds for the U.S. election on Polymarket, trading activity in the cryptocurrency sector has increased. When the odds of Trump winning rose to 67%, the BTC/USD spot price briefly broke through $73,600, setting a new all-time high. Subsequently, as weekend polls pushed the odds back down to 55%, the price fell and tested $67,500. The odds of the Republican Party dominating seats also decreased from 48% to 37%. Despite the narrowing odds gap, price movements across various markets reflect that sentiment remains bullish and prepares for a Trump victory. The U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data showed an increase of 12 thousand, far below the expected 100 thousand. However, the market largely dismissed this, attributing it to recent hurricanes and labor strikes. After the data release, the BTC/USD spot market saw some fresh inflows, briefly pushing the price up to $71,500 but subsequently giving back the entire gain. The market is cautious about chasing prices during the election. Microstrategy announced a three-year $42 billion Bitcoin investment plan in last week's earnings report, primarily raising funds through stock and convertible bond offerings to increase its Bitcoin holdings. While this should support prices in the medium term, short-term price movements are mainly influenced by the election. BTC Implied Volatility: This week's actual volatility has increased, primarily due to changes in Polymarket election odds. The odds fluctuated back and forth from 58% to 67% and then to 54% (with Trump leading). High-frequency actual volatility rose to moderate levels in the 40s, which must be acknowledged as not particularly high in Bitcoin's history, but significantly higher than in previous weeks. Additionally, the price changes after the November 1 expiration indicate that the market's short gamma positions are increasing ahead of the election. This week's implied volatility levels received strong support as the market saw a surge in demand for November expiration options, primarily targeting the expiration date after the U.S. election. Demand is mainly focused on upward strike prices between $75,000 and $80,000, but we also observed some pure trading volatility straddles/strangles. Due to high demand, volatility rebounded from recent lows. The market's pricing for event volatility on election day dropped over the weekend to recent lows, as evident high volatility roll data and theta data encouraged retail traders to hold short positions over the weekend. With a mere 7% premium on volatility for strangle combinations expiring on the Friday after the election and FOMC, we believe holding long gamma should provide ample profit margins in event volatility. A change in odds from 67% to 54% alone prompted the price to drop from a high of $73,500 to a low of $67,500 last week, suggesting that a rise to $75,000 after a Trump victory or a drop to $60,000 after a Harris victory should not be difficult. Skew/Kurtosis: This week, skew continued to decline, seemingly tracking movements in spot prices and changes in election odds. The skew for the November 8 expiration has actually reversed downwards rather sharply, reflecting the market's preparation for a Trump win and the belief that an "unexpected" Harris win would lead to greater price drops. Kurtosis gradually rose from recent lows this week, as buyers appeared on both sides of the market, especially for the November expiration. Wishing everyone good luck in the coming week! You can use the SignalPlus trading indicator feature at t.signalplus.com for more real-time crypto insights. If you want to receive our updates instantly, feel free to follow our Twitter account @SignalPlusCN, or join our WeChat group (add assistant WeChat: SignalPlus123), Telegram group, and Discord community to interact with more friends. SignalPlus Official Website: https://www.signalplus.com

BTC Volatility: A Weekly Review from October 28, 2024 to November 04, 2024

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price witnessed a sharp 8% correction between Oct. 29 and Nov. 3 and briefly dropped to $67,446 over the weekend. While the higher time frame (HTF) market structure remains bullish for BTC, the market expects a volatile trading session heading into the US presidential election results on Nov. 5. Bitcoin’s current uptrend can be traced back to the lows formed at $52,510 on Sept. 6. Since then, each BTC correction during its higher high (HH) and higher low (HL) structure has retested the Fibonacci “golden zone” between 0.5 and 0.618. The chart below shows Bitcoin exhibiting similar behavior, with prices closing above the 0.618 level over the weekend. A daily close above $68,500 over the next 48 hours would complete the lower time frame (LTF) bullish structure, with BTC immediately recovering above the $70,000 psychological level. Cold Blooder Shiller, an anonymous trader on X, conveyed a similar bullish projection, stating that the $69,200 level is “really important to claim back on the LTF.” The trader added, “You can make a very strong case for holding above $69,000 on the daily as a good retest and sign of strength.” Considering that Bitcoin lost the $68,500 level on the daily chart, the next area of interest is around $65,000-$66,000. Skew, an onchain analyst, pointed out that the Bitcoin market witnessed “persistent demand” around $65,000-$66,000 during its recent bullish rally, which pushed prices above $70,000 at the end of October. During the rally, a market shift was observed between $66,000 and $67,000 on Binance, where spot buys pushed BTC’s value beyond the $69,000 mark. Hence, a clear area of liquidity and order book depth was established. Thus, this area remains a clear zone for future market bids. As observed in the chart, the $66,000-$67,000 range acted as a key resistance level a couple of times before it was breached, and then, it supported BTC prices before its recent highs at $73,660. Therefore, this key area could support Bitcoin for a potential V-pattern reversal after the commencement of US election results. Related: Bitcoin analyst sees $66K 'local bottom' as BTC price liquidates $200M Irrespective of the election results, multiple crypto proponents believed that the long-term trajectory is “up only” for Bitcoin. Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Fund, indicated that the current BTC ETF trend clearly suggests that the market does not care who will be the US president in the long term. Cobie, a popular crypto trader, shared in this view. However, in light of a surprise Harris victory, Bitcoin could exhibit short-term price declines if traders choose to de-leverage long positions and remain sidelined for a few weeks until the market volatility cools down. In such a scenario, a re-test to $62,000 is possible since over $300 million in leverage positions are around this price. An order block can also be observed around $62,000, and a price drop to that level could lead to a collective retest of the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMA levels on the daily chart. Related: US election vs. Fed rate cut — 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. 

Bitcoin Price Volatility Expected Ahead of US Elections: Here are the Price Levels to Watch

Bitcoin price trades below $70,000 as traders derisk ahead of the election. Will altcoins follow this trend or take advantage of BTC's consolidation? Data hints that there is a strong possibility that Bitcoin (BTC) may create a new all-time high this week. The United States Presidential elections and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision are two events that are expected to boost volatility. Pseudonymous trader Daan Crypto Trades said in a post on X that Bitcoin will see “at least a 10% move in either direction depending on who wins the election.” Investors have maintained a bullish stance going into the elections. CoinShares’ Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report shows that investors pumped $2.2 billion into digital investment products last week, with Bitcoin garnering the lion’s share of the inflows. However, not everyone is bullish in the short term. Trading firm QCP Capital cautioned its Telegram channel subscribers that Bitcoin could face a sell-off after the elections, “replicating the Nashville Bitcoin conference.” Could Bitcoin start a relief rally? Will altcoins follow? Let’s analyze the charts to find out. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell below the 20-day exponential moving average (5,778) on Oct. 31, indicating a weakening bullish momentum. The bulls successfully defended the 50-day simple moving average (5,703) on Oct. 31 but failed to push the price back above the 20-day EMA on Nov. 1. Sellers will try to sink the index below the 5,670 support. If they do that, the selling could pick up, and the index may dive to 5,400. Conversely, if the price turns up from the current level or 5,670 and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will signal buying on dips. The index could then climb to the all-time high of 5,879. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded off the 20-day EMA (103.56) on Nov. 1, but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. Solid selling by the bears has pulled the price to the 20-day EMA on Nov. 4. If the 20-day EMA cracks, the selling could pick up, and the index could drop to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 102.92. On the contrary, if the index turns up from the 20-day EMA, it will signal that the sentiment remains positive, and traders are buying the dips. The bulls will then make another attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at 104.80. Buyers purchased the dip below the 20-day EMA ($68,259) on Nov. 3 but are struggling to build upon the bounce. The bears will try to strengthen their position by pulling the price below the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the BTC/USDT pair could plunge to the crucial support at $65,000. This is an important support for the bulls to defend if they want to keep the positive sentiment intact. If the price turns up from the 20-day EMA and breaks above $70,000, it will tilt the advantage in favor of the buyers. The pair could rise to $72,000 and eventually to $73,777. Sellers are expected to vigorously defend the $72,000 to $73,777 resistance zone. Ether (ETH) is trying to maintain above the support line of the symmetrical triangle pattern, but the bears continue to exert pressure. A break and close below the support line will signal that the sellers have overpowered the buyers. That could start a downward move to $2,310 and then to $2,200. Buyers will try to defend the $2,200 to $2,111 zone with all their might. The bearish view will be negated in the short term if the price rises from the support line and breaks above the moving averages. The ETH/USDT pair could then attempt a rally to the resistance line. A trend change will be signaled after buyers overcome the barrier at $2,850. BNB (BNB) continues to trade inside the large range between $460 and $635, indicating buying on dips and selling on rallies. The BNB/USDT pair could fall to $527, which is a crucial near-term support to keep an eye on. If the price rebounds off $527 and rises above the moving averages, it will signal that the bulls are trying to keep the pair in the upper half of the range. The pair may consolidate between $527 and $612 for some time. If the price continues lower and breaks below $527, it will suggest that the bears are in command. The pair may sink to the vital support at $460. Solana (SOL) slipped below the breakout level of $164 on Nov. 3, indicating that the markets have rejected the breakout. A minor positive for the bulls is that they have not allowed the price to sink to the 50-day SMA ($154). Buyers will try to push the price back above $164. If they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair could climb to the $183 to $189 resistance zone. Alternatively, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA ($165), it will suggest that the bears are trying to gain the upper hand. The pair could descend to the 50-day SMA and then to the uptrend line. XRP (XRP) is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the $0.50 support. The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.52) and the RSI in the negative territory indicate advantage to sellers. If the XRP/USDT pair turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, the possibility of a drop to $0.46 increases. Buyers are expected to fiercely defend the $0.46 to $0.41 zone. The first sign of strength on the upside will be a break and close above the 50-day SMA ($0.55). That will clear the path for a potential rally to $0.64. Related: Here’s what happened in crypto today Dogecoin (DOGE) is trying to find support at the 20-day EMA ($0.15), indicating demand at lower levels. The bulls will try to push the price to the overhead resistance at $0.18. This level is likely to act as a barrier, but if the bulls prevail, the DOGE/USDT pair could start the next leg of the up move toward $0.21. Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bulls are losing their grip. The pair could plummet to the 50-day SMA ($0.13), which is likely to act as a solid support. Toncoin (TON) is finding support in the $4.72 to $4.44 support zone, but a negative sign is that the bulls have failed to push the price above the moving averages. Repeated retest of a support level tends to weaken it. If the support zone gives way, the TON/USDT pair will complete a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, which could start a decline to $3.50. This negative view will be invalidated in the near term if the bulls push and maintain the price above the 50-day SMA ($5.30). The pair could then rise to $6 and subsequently to $7. Cardano (ADA) turned down from the 50-day SMA ($0.35) on Nov. 2, indicating that bears continue to sell on rallies. The bears will try to pull the price to the support of the range at $0.31, where the buyers are expected to step in. If the price rebounds off $0.31 and rises above the moving averages, it will signal that the range-bound action may continue for a few more days. If the price breaks below $0.31, it will signal the resumption of the downtrend. The ADA/USDT pair could decline to $0.27, which is an important support to watch out for. If this level gives way, the pair may drop to $0.22. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

DOGE

Data hints that there is a strong possibility that Bitcoin ( BTC ) may create a new all-time high this week. The United States Presidential elections and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision are two events that are expected to boost volatility . Pseudonymous trader Daan Crypto Trades said in a post on X that Bitcoin will see “at least a 10% move in either direction depending on who wins the election.” Investors have maintained a bullish stance going into the elections. CoinShares’ Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report shows that investors pumped $2.2 billion into digital investment products last week, with Bitcoin garnering the lion’s share of the inflows. However, not everyone is bullish in the short term. Trading firm QCP Capital cautioned its Telegram channel subscribers that Bitcoin could face a sell-off after the elections , “replicating the Nashville Bitcoin conference.” Could Bitcoin start a relief rally? Will altcoins follow? Let’s analyze the charts to find out. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell below the 20-day exponential moving average (5,778) on Oct. 31, indicating a weakening bullish momentum. The bulls successfully defended the 50-day simple moving average (5,703) on Oct. 31 but failed to push the price back above the 20-day EMA on Nov. 1. Sellers will try to sink the index below the 5,670 support. If they do that, the selling could pick up, and the index may dive to 5,400. Conversely, if the price turns up from the current level or 5,670 and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will signal buying on dips. The index could then climb to the all-time high of 5,879. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded off the 20-day EMA (103.56) on Nov. 1, but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. Solid selling by the bears has pulled the price to the 20-day EMA on Nov. 4. If the 20-day EMA cracks, the selling could pick up, and the index could drop to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 102.92. On the contrary, if the index turns up from the 20-day EMA, it will signal that the sentiment remains positive, and traders are buying the dips. The bulls will then make another attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at 104.80. Buyers purchased the dip below the 20-day EMA ($68,259) on Nov. 3 but are struggling to build upon the bounce. The bears will try to strengthen their position by pulling the price below the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the BTC/USDT pair could plunge to the crucial support at $65,000. This is an important support for the bulls to defend if they want to keep the positive sentiment intact. If the price turns up from the 20-day EMA and breaks above $70,000, it will tilt the advantage in favor of the buyers. The pair could rise to $72,000 and eventually to $73,777. Sellers are expected to vigorously defend the $72,000 to $73,777 resistance zone. Ether ( ETH ) is trying to maintain above the support line of the symmetrical triangle pattern, but the bears continue to exert pressure. A break and close below the support line will signal that the sellers have overpowered the buyers. That could start a downward move to $2,310 and then to $2,200. Buyers will try to defend the $2,200 to $2,111 zone with all their might. The bearish view will be negated in the short term if the price rises from the support line and breaks above the moving averages. The ETH/USDT pair could then attempt a rally to the resistance line. A trend change will be signaled after buyers overcome the barrier at $2,850. BNB ( BNB ) continues to trade inside the large range between $460 and $635, indicating buying on dips and selling on rallies. The BNB/USDT pair could fall to $527, which is a crucial near-term support to keep an eye on. If the price rebounds off $527 and rises above the moving averages, it will signal that the bulls are trying to keep the pair in the upper half of the range. The pair may consolidate between $527 and $612 for some time. If the price continues lower and breaks below $527, it will suggest that the bears are in command. The pair may sink to the vital support at $460. Solana ( SOL ) slipped below the breakout level of $164 on Nov. 3, indicating that the markets have rejected the breakout. A minor positive for the bulls is that they have not allowed the price to sink to the 50-day SMA ($154). Buyers will try to push the price back above $164. If they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair could climb to the $183 to $189 resistance zone. Alternatively, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA ($165), it will suggest that the bears are trying to gain the upper hand. The pair could descend to the 50-day SMA and then to the uptrend line. XRP ( XRP ) is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the $0.50 support. The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.52) and the RSI in the negative territory indicate advantage to sellers. If the XRP/USDT pair turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, the possibility of a drop to $0.46 increases. Buyers are expected to fiercely defend the $0.46 to $0.41 zone. The first sign of strength on the upside will be a break and close above the 50-day SMA ($0.55). That will clear the path for a potential rally to $0.64. Related: Here’s what happened in crypto today Dogecoin ( DOGE ) is trying to find support at the 20-day EMA ($0.15), indicating demand at lower levels. The bulls will try to push the price to the overhead resistance at $0.18. This level is likely to act as a barrier, but if the bulls prevail, the DOGE/USDT pair could start the next leg of the up move toward $0.21. Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bulls are losing their grip. The pair could plummet to the 50-day SMA ($0.13), which is likely to act as a solid support.  Toncoin ( TON ) is finding support in the $4.72 to $4.44 support zone, but a negative sign is that the bulls have failed to push the price above the moving averages. Repeated retest of a support level tends to weaken it. If the support zone gives way, the TON/USDT pair will complete a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, which could start a decline to $3.50. This negative view will be invalidated in the near term if the bulls push and maintain the price above the 50-day SMA ($5.30). The pair could then rise to $6 and subsequently to $7. Cardano ( ADA ) turned down from the 50-day SMA ($0.35) on Nov. 2, indicating that bears continue to sell on rallies. The bears will try to pull the price to the support of the range at $0.31, where the buyers are expected to step in. If the price rebounds off $0.31 and rises above the moving averages, it will signal that the range-bound action may continue for a few more days. If the price breaks below $0.31, it will signal the resumption of the downtrend. The ADA/USDT pair could decline to $0.27, which is an important support to watch out for. If this level gives way, the pair may drop to $0.22. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. 

Price Analysis 11/4: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, DOGE, TON, ADA

BlockBeats News, November 4th, according to Bloomberg, Bitcoin speculators are preparing to deal with potential market volatility after the U.S. election day. Since the global market crash in August, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index has reached its highest level. The index, compiled by CF Benchmarks Ltd., is derived from CME Bitcoin options pricing. Cryptocurrency derivatives trading liquidity provider Orbit Markets co-founder Caroline Mauron stated that the options market is indicating an expected post-election day volatility of about 8%, while typical volatility is usually around 2%. She added: 'After November 7th, there is no significant volatility premium in the market, indicating that the market expects a quick election outcome. Given the tight race as indicated by the polls, this may be an optimistic prediction.' According to a report from the cryptocurrency derivatives trading platform Derive.xyz, throughout October, both Bitcoin's put and call options were evenly distributed, indicating that speculators were preparing for both upward and downward trends ahead of the U.S. election. Additionally, according to Deribit data, in the weeks following the election, based on the peak open interest positions of put and call options, the Bitcoin trading range could be between $60,000 and $80,000.

BlockBeats News, November 4th, according to Bloomberg, Bitcoin speculators are preparing to deal with potential market volatility after the U.S. election day. Since the global market crash in August, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index has reached its highest level. The index, compiled by CF Benchmarks Ltd., is derived from CME Bitcoin options pricing. Cryptocurrency derivatives trading liquidity provider Orbit Markets co-founder Caroline Mauron stated that the options market is indicating an expected post-election day volatility of about 8%, while typical volatility is usually around 2%. She added: "After November 7th, there is no significant volatility premium in the market, indicating that the market expects a quick election outcome. Given the tight race as indicated by the polls, this may be an optimistic prediction." According to a report from the cryptocurrency derivatives trading platform Derive.xyz, throughout October, both Bitcoin's put and call options were evenly distributed, indicating that speculators were preparing for both upward and downward trends ahead of the U.S. election. Additionally, according to Deribit data, in the weeks following the election, based on the peak open interest positions of put and call options, the Bitcoin trading range could be between $60,000 and $80,000.

Bitcoin Speculators Prepare for Post-Election Volatility

Bitcoin faces a macro week like few others as BTC price action struggles to flip old resistance to bull market support. With the US Presidential Election and the Federal Reserve interest rates decision on the horizon, volatility is expected to reign supreme. Traders anticipate rapid moves between key liquidity areas and the possibility of another tap of all-time highs followed by a BTC price correction. Bitcoin dominance remains strong, impacting altcoin performance. Bitcoin difficulty is set to reach new all-time highs.

Bitcoin ( BTC ) heads into US Presidential Election week with its own battle for $69,000 and new all-time highs. Bitcoin kept bulls frustrated over the weekend as an ongoing comedown from last week’s tap of $73,500 liquidated longs. Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms a weekend wick below $67,500, with BTC/USD managing only a modest rebound before running out of momentum. Now, with the US Presidential Election due, volatility is all but guaranteed. “Currently there's two clear areas of market liquidity & orderbook depth,” popular trader Skew wrote in part of his latest analysis on X. “$67K - $65K : bid liquidity & bid depth $73K + : ask liquidity & ask depth.” Skew predicted that rapid moves between the past week’s low and high could come at short notice. “In coming days it will be very important how this market trades especially around areas of market liquidity,” he concluded. “Quite easy to influence price & volatility between $66K & $73K given the wide orderbook.” Others looked at what could come next, with popular trader and analyst Credible Crypto suggesting that another tap of all-time highs could precede a deeper BTC price correction. “Lower timeframes looking very constructive here- $BTC looks to be forming a bottom here for that push to ATH,” he told X followers. Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows increasing order book bid liquidity stacking above $67,000 into the new week. Familiar resistance levels in play since 2021, headlined by $69,000, thus remain in play. The 2024 US Presidential Election is here, and regardless of the result, crypto and risk-asset traders expect fireworks. Market volatility is expected to reign supreme in the coming days, with moves both up and down on the cards. As Bitcoin gave hodlers a taste of what might be to come over the weekend, Skew said that the environment was reminiscent of the build-up to key macro events in the past. “Positioning decay well underway here & temporary hedges scaling into the US election,” he told X followers while analyzing perpetual swaps. “Underweight positioning & over hedged market is something to look out for in terms of the next predatory move. Market seeks out liquidity into big events.” In another post , Skew acknowledged that Bitcoin markets looked “more healthy” than last week during the trip to near all-time highs. “Likely to be a taker dominated market till post US election results,” he continued. “Slight improvement in market quoting ahead of early week trading, would need to see sustained spot premiums & spot bid to maintain price.” Trading firm QCP Capital meanwhile had bad news for short-term BTC speculators. In its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers, it predicted a sell-off after the Nov. 5 election. “While Trump has been favoured as the next POTUS, bets on Trump have come off significantly from a 66% high on Polymarket, to 57% for Trump and 43% for Harris,” it noted about election odds over the weekend. “Regardless of the outcome, we believe the Elections will be another sell-the-news action, replicating the Nashville Bitcoin conference.” Besides the election, this week hosts another key macroeconomic date in crypto traders’ diaries: the Federal Reserve interest rates decision. The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Nov. 7 will show once and for all how the Fed intends to handle conflicting inflationary forces. As Cointelegraph reported , these have come in the form of overshoots in inflation gauges combined with lukewarm employment. Last week, nonfarm payroll data came in dramatically below expectations , with the prior two months’ numbers also being revised downward. “The Fed made it clear that maintaining strength in the labor market is taking precedent over fighting inflation,” trading firm Mosaic Asset noted in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “ The Market Mosaic ,” on Nov. 3. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool confirms that markets expect a 0.25% rate cut to result from the FOMC meeting. With risk assets tipped for volatility throughout the week, Mosaic eyed the VIX volatility index and US Dollar Index (DXY) for cues. “The reaction to elections could drive a breakout or breakdown in DXY,” it summarized. “If the dollar turns back lower at resistance, I believe that’s supportive of risk assets in the near-term.” DXY stood at 103.82 at the time of writing, fighting to preserve a rebound that began in earnest at the start of October. Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market cap recently reached a key psychological level — and is holding it. On Oct. 29, Bitcoin market dominance broke through 60% for the first time since April 2021. Its performance has not gone unnoticed, as traders tend to equate a strong Bitcoin with flagging altcoins — until the trend changes. “Bitcoin Dominance is currently around 60.51%, keeping $BTC in the 68k–70k range while altcoins drop 20-40% from recent highs,” analyst Cryptorphic wrote in an X post on the topic on Nov. 4. “This pattern is common in bull runs, as rising BTC dominance typically pulls altcoins down. In my experience, a rejection zone between 64% and 65.81% could trigger an altcoin rally while BTC hits new all-time highs and moves sideways.” Popular commentator MartyParty suggested that Bitcoin dominance was due for a significant downtrend in line with previous halving years. A chart uploaded to X calculated that 224 days after each halving event, dominance began to drop. Counterarguments during a subsequent debate included the presence of the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) propping up BTC demand and the overall lack of interest in crypto among retail investors. Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital meanwhile noted that dominance had set a conspicuously bullish monthly close from the perspective of the macro price trend. “That's a historic Monthly Close for Bitcoin Dominance,” he summarized on Nov. 1. “The last time BTC Dominance closed like this in a macro uptrend was back in early 2019. That's over 5 years ago now.” Bitcoin difficulty is due to headline network fundamentals this week with a trip to new all-time highs. Related: Bitcoin looks ripe for a rebound, and so do ETH, DOGE, LTC, and XMR The latest estimates from mining pool CloverPool (formerly BTC.com) see difficulty rising 5.1% at its next automated readjustment on Nov. 5. This will take it above 100 trillion for the first time. The mining difficulty thus joins the hashrate in exploring new territory as the Bitcoin mining sector emerges from the latest halving . Meanwhile, a mining-related BTC price metric is busy setting all-time highs of its own. As noted by Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, the Bitcoin Energy Value chart is on track to hit six figures. “Bitcoin Energy Value, the value of Bitcoin in raw Joules, is knocking on $100K for the first time ever,” he revealed last week. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. 

US Election and Fed Rate Cut: Bitcoin Faces Volatility as BTC Price Struggles

Anonymous trader Daan Crypto Trades stated that the price of Bitcoin could fluctuate by at least 10%, depending on which U.S. presidential candidate wins the election on November 5. IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore mentioned that Bitcoin needs to break through the resistance level of $74,000 to confirm an upward trend, potentially rising significantly to $80,000. Sycamore also warned that traders should act cautiously; a sustained drop below the support level of $65,000 would indicate a failure of last week's rebound and could lead back into a seven-month downward trend channel.

Odaily Planet Daily News: Anonymous trader Daan Crypto Trades posted on X that the price of Bitcoin could fluctuate by at least 10%, depending on which U.S. presidential candidate wins the election on November 5.

IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in an investment report on November 4 that Bitcoin needs to "consistently break through" the resistance level of $74,000 to confirm an upward trend and could potentially surge to $80,000.

Sycamore also warned that traders should proceed with caution, as a "sustained drop" below the support level of $65,000 for BTC would indicate a failure of last week's rebound and could lead back to a seven-month downward trend channel. (Cointelegraph)

Analysis: Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate by at least 10% in either direction based on the results of the U.S. presidential election.

BlockBeats News, November 4th, according to Derive.xyz (formerly known as Lyra) founder Nick Forster's analysis, the overnight forward volatility of BTC and ETH surged. Bitcoin's volatility is currently at 80.30%, higher than the previous 72.20%, and Ethereum's volatility is currently at 82.92%, higher than the previous 75.40%. Nick Forster stated that this surge reflects traders preparing for the election results, which could greatly impact market prices. There is a two-thirds chance of significant price swings on election night, with BTC ranging from -8.97% to +9.85% and ETH slightly wider at -9.25% to +10.19%. Nick Forster further added that the total open interest for bullish options on BTC is 1,179 contracts, while for bearish options, it is 885 contracts. This clearly indicates that despite potential volatility, the market is still biased towards bullish sentiment.

BlockBeats News, November 4th, according to Derive.xyz (formerly known as Lyra) founder Nick Forster's analysis, the overnight forward volatility of BTC and ETH surged. Bitcoin's volatility is currently at 80.30%, higher than the previous 72.20%, and Ethereum's volatility is currently at 82.92%, higher than the previous 75.40%. Nick Forster stated that this surge reflects traders preparing for the election results, which could greatly impact market prices. There is a two-thirds chance of significant price swings on election night, with BTC ranging from -8.97% to +9.85% and ETH slightly wider at -9.25% to +10.19%. Nick Forster further added that the total open interest for bullish options on BTC is 1,179 contracts, while for bearish options, it is 885 contracts. This clearly indicates that despite potential volatility, the market is still biased towards bullish sentiment.

Analyst: Anticipates a ±9% BTC Volatility on Election Night, but Market Still Bullish

Greg Magadini of Amberdata predicts that Bitcoin could experience price fluctuations between $6,000 and $8,000 as the US presidential elections approach. Options traders are preparing for bullish volatility and expect an uptrend in Bitcoin.

With just days left until the US presidential election, presidential candidate Donald Trump’s winning odds have decreased on Polymarket, while Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency with which it is closely associated, has also seen declines. At this point, BTC fell to $67,400, while analysts noted that there could be fluctuations in the price in both directions before and after the election. Speaking to Coindesk, Amberdata derivatives director Greg Magadini said that with the US presidential election approaching and the presidential race being tight, BTC could move in either direction between $6,000 and $8,000. “As a result of the post-election price reaction, I expect a +1.5 Sigma swing, i.e. a swing in the $6,000 to $8,000 price range. My estimate is based on a 112% annualized forward volatility from a November 6 options trade on Deribit, suggesting a $4,000 price swing in either direction. Its positive 1.5-sigma corresponds to a price swing in the $6,000 to $8,000 range.” Magadini said options traders are preparing for bullish volatility, noting that volatility and the expected price action in Bitcoin are two-way: “They are buying calls on Deribit and CME at $70,000, $85,000 and $90,000 expiration times,” he said. Apart from Magadini, Arbelos Markets co-founder Joshua Lim also said that options traders are expecting an uptrend, and that they prefer calls at levels of $70,000 and above on Deribit and CME. Stating that this situation shows an upward trend despite the recent spot price declines, Lim said that apart from the US elections this week, the FED&#039;s interest rate decision is also critical. *This is not investment advice.

Bitcoin Price Expected to Fluctuate Before US Presidential Elections, Analysts Say

Despite the recent drop in prices and rising volatility, the crypto market sentiment remains positive. The cryptocurrency market is headed for one of the most crucial weeks this year. Speculation on the week’s events has triggered price declines. At press time, all the top 50 cryptos by market capitalization, apart from Celestia [TIA] were trading in the red. Over the weekend, Bitcoin [BTC] dropped from $71,000 to trade at $68,380 at press time. Ethereum [ETH] also traded at $2,440, after a 2% dip. The declining prices resulted in massive liquidations in the derivatives market. Data from Coinglass showed that in the last 24 hours, more than $238 million was liquidated from the market.The liquidations affected more than 104,000 traders, with the largest liquidation order of $9.9 million happening on the OKX exchange. Besides the typical weekend volatility, the US election polls on Polymarket might have stirred the recent price moves. The election is now less than two days away, and former US President Donald Trump has dropped by 6% in the polls within three days.A Trump win is expected to have a net positive impact on the crypto market due to his pro-crypto campaign policy. Upcoming FOMC meeting The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold its next meeting on 7th November. During the previous meeting, the committee slashed interest rates by 50 basis points, which set the stage for a recovery in risk assets such as crypto. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that 98% of investors are anticipating another rate cut, of 25 basis points, during the November meeting. If the Federal Reserve trims rates per the market expectations, crypto prices are poised for an uptrend. This is because a loose monetary policy increases investors’ risk appetite, which boosts demand for assets such as crypto. As AMBCrypto reported, the US September inflation rate came in at 2.1%, inching closer to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. This supports the argument for further rate cuts. After the September meeting, Bitcoin gained by around 8% within a week. A similar upward move could propel BTC to record highs given that at its current price, it is 7% shy of its all-time high. Crypto market sentiment is still bullish Despite the recent drop in prices and rising volatility, the crypto market sentiment remains positive as seen in the Fear and Greed Index, which had a value of 74 at press time. At its current value, this index shows that the market is in a state of greed. This sentiment tends to spur buying activity, which in turn leads to price gains. This shows that crypto traders are still looking towards more gains after the recent pullback. Some catalysts of this positive sentiment include the FOMC meeting and expectations that Q4 has historically boded well for crypto prices.

The cryptocurrency market is headed for one of the most crucial weeks this year. Speculation on the week’s events has triggered price declines. At press time, all the top 50 cryptos by market capitalization, apart from Celestia [TIA] were trading in the red. Over the weekend, Bitcoin [BTC] dropped from $71,000 to trade at $68,380 at press time. Ethereum [ETH] also traded at $2,440, after a 2% dip. The declining prices resulted in massive liquidations in the derivatives market. Data from Coinglass showed that in the last 24 hours, more than $238 million was liquidated from the market.The liquidations affected more than 104,000 traders, with the largest liquidation order of $9.9 million happening on the OKX exchange. Besides the typical weekend volatility, the US election polls on Polymarket might have stirred the recent price moves. The election is now less than two days away, and former US President Donald Trump has dropped by 6% in the polls within three days.A Trump win is expected to have a net positive impact on the crypto market due to his pro-crypto campaign policy. Upcoming FOMC meeting The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold its next meeting on 7th November. During the previous meeting, the committee slashed interest rates by 50 basis points, which set the stage for a recovery in risk assets such as crypto. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that 98% of investors are anticipating another rate cut, of 25 basis points, during the November meeting. If the Federal Reserve trims rates per the market expectations, crypto prices are poised for an uptrend. This is because a loose monetary policy increases investors’ risk appetite, which boosts demand for assets such as crypto. As AMBCrypto reported, the US September inflation rate came in at 2.1%, inching closer to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. This supports the argument for further rate cuts. After the September meeting, Bitcoin gained by around 8% within a week. A similar upward move could propel BTC to record highs given that at its current price, it is 7% shy of its all-time high. Crypto market sentiment is still bullish Despite the recent drop in prices and rising volatility, the crypto market sentiment remains positive as seen in the Fear and Greed Index, which had a value of 74 at press time. At its current value, this index shows that the market is in a state of greed. This sentiment tends to spur buying activity, which in turn leads to price gains. This shows that crypto traders are still looking towards more gains after the recent pullback. Some catalysts of this positive sentiment include the FOMC meeting and expectations that Q4 has historically boded well for crypto prices. 

Crypto Week Ahead: Market Braces for US Elections, FOMC Meeting – What’s Next?

As Trump's probability of winning in the prediction markets declines, the price of BTC has fallen, and volatility has surged significantly. The overnight implied volatility of both BTC and ETH has soared as traders prepare for election results, which could lead to substantial market price fluctuations. The volatility range for BTC is between -8.97% and +9.85%, while ETH's volatility range is between -9.25% and +10.19%. The market sentiment leans bullish.

Odaily Planet Daily reported that as Trump's winning probability in prediction markets has declined following a series of positive trends in Democratic polls, even dipping below Vice President Harris's odds on the U.S. regulatory market Kalshi, the price of BTC has fallen, and volatility has surged significantly.

According to analysis by Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz (formerly Lyra), the overnight forward volatility of BTC and ETH has skyrocketed, with BTC's volatility currently at 80.30%, up from 72.20%, and ETH's volatility currently at 82.92%, up from 75.40%.

"This increase reflects that traders are preparing for election results that could significantly impact market prices," Forster predicts a two-thirds chance of substantial price volatility on election night, stating, "BTC's volatility range is between -8.97% and +9.85%, while ETH's volatility range is slightly larger, between -9.25% and +10.19%."

He noted, "The total open interest in BTC call options is 1,179 contracts, while the total open interest in put options is 885 contracts, clearly indicating that despite potential volatility, the market still leans bullish." (The Block)

Traders Prepare for the U.S. Election as BTC and ETH Volatility Significantly Increases

With the United States presidential election almost upon us, crypto industry analysts and experts have been busy with their predictions for the volatile week ahead. There will be a new president in the White House this week, and the victor will have a huge impact on the crypto landscape in the United States over the next few years. Regardless of who wins, we should see elevated volatility in the coming days. Capriole Fund founder Charles Edwards opined that he didn’t think there would be much of a dip if Kamala Harris wins. Meanwhile, analyst Miles Deutscher said that it “feels like the market is scared of a Kamala win and is de-risking ahead of the election.” Daan Crypto Trades told his 390,000 X followers on Nov. 4 that there is a “good probability” that BTC prices will see “at least a 10% move to either direction depending on who ends up winning the election this week.” Bitcoin pioneer Anthony Pompliano held a poll with the majority of the 16,000 voters thinking Donald Trump will win. However, the results are skewed due to the majority of his followers being into crypto. Investor and tech entrepreneur Mike Alfred observed that in every previous cycle, Bitcoin has made a low price the week of the US election that has never been revisited again. The latest Polymarket poll has Trump leading in four of the six key swing states which could influence the final outcome of the election. Overall, the blockchain betting platform has Trump leading with a 54.8% chance, while Harris has 45.1% for the national polls.

There will be a new president in the White House this week, and the victor will have a huge impact on the crypto landscape in the United States over the next few years.“Regardless of who wins, we should see elevated volatility in the coming days,” commented the Kobeissi Letter.Meanwhile, industry experts and analysts have been airing their thoughts over the weekend.<h2>Up or Down After Election?</h2>Capriole Fund founder Charles Edwards opined that he didn’t think there would be much of a dip if Kamala Harris wins.“There would be an initial shock, unwind of Trump trades, volume trades, and a nuke within our current range,” he said before adding that there have been 8 months of consolidation, bullish ETFs, and a lot of selling pressure.“Market is currently pricing in compression of odds into election day. After a post-election leverage unwind, who will be selling?”Meanwhile, analyst Miles Deutscher said that it “feels like the market is scared of a Kamala win and is de-risking ahead of the election.” He added that markets hate uncertainty, and a 50/50 race is the definition of that word.“If Trump wins, I think this de-risk increases the bull case and conversely subdues the bear case (Kamala).”Daan Crypto Trades told his 390,000 X followers on Nov. 4 that there is a “good probability” that BTC prices will see “at least a 10% move to either direction depending on who ends up winning the election this week.” This could result in a dump below $60,000 or a surge to a new all-time high.Bitcoin pioneer Anthony Pompliano held a poll with the majority of the 16,000 voters thinking Donald Trump will win. However, the results are skewed due to the majority of his followers being into crypto.Investor and tech entrepreneur Mike Alfred observed that in every previous cycle, Bitcoin has made a low price the week of the US election that has never been revisited again.“This week will literally be the last time you can ever buy Bitcoin below $70,000.”<h2>Trump Leads at The Polls</h2>The latest Polymarket poll has Trump leading in four of the six key swing states which could influence the final outcome of the election.Overall, the blockchain betting platform has Trump leading with a 54.8% chance, while Harris has 45.1% for the national polls.
Latest Swing State Odds (% chance of winning)
Arizona • Trump 76% – Harris 24%
Georgia • Trump 64% – Harris 36%
Nevada • Trump 59% – Harris 41%
Pennsylvania • Trump 54% – Harris 46%
Wisconsin • Harris 58% – Trump 42%
Michigan • Harris 59% – Trump 41% pic.twitter.com/ol96h8NMAP
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 4, 2024

Bitcoin Predictions for Election Week: Experts Weigh In

Cryptocurrency exchanges experienced a surge in long liquidations of traders positions over the weekend, as the price of bitcoin dropped over 4% from a high of over $71,000 on Friday to now hover above the $68,500 mark. Total liquidations across centralized exchanges amounted to over $230 million, with the majority being long positions at around $150 million liquidated. Bitcoin was the leading cryptocurrency in terms of liquidations, with almost $51 million liquidated in the past 24 hours. Analysts suggest a cautious market due to bitcoin's sideways price action and a reduction in leveraged perpetual futures positioning. The upcoming U.S. presidential election and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting are contributing to the cautious sentiment. In the options market, there is increased buying of $75,000 call options set to expire at the end of November, reflecting growing demand for upside exposure. The spot price of bitcoin is expected to chop around the current range until there is more clarity on the election results. In the broader cryptocurrency market, bitcoin is trading flat over the past 24 hours, while the GMCI 30 index has risen roughly 0.58% to 120.65.

Cryptocurrency exchanges experienced a surge in long liquidations of traders positions over the weekend, as the price of bitcoin dropped over 4% from a high of over $71,000 on Friday to now hover above the $68,500 mark.In the past day, total liquidations across centralized exchanges amounted to over $230 million, with the majority being long positions at around $150 million liquidated as prices traded down, according to data from Coinglass. Bitcoin was the leading cryptocurrency in terms of liquidations, with almost $51 million liquidated in the past 24 hours.Analysts at QCP Capital noted that bitcoin’s sideways price action and a reduction in leveraged perpetual futures positioning, from $30 billion to $26 billion across exchanges, suggest a cautious market. This caution likely stems from anticipation around important events this week, including the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Thursday.Regarding the upcoming U.S. presidential election this Tuesday, candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a close race, with odds on Polymarket moving closer to recent polling estimates. Although Polymarket still favors Trump with a 55% likelihood of winning, his odds have fallen sharply from 66% just a week ago.As for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Thursday, the CME FedWatch tool indicates a 98.1% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut.In the options market, QCP Capital reports increased buying of $75,000 call options set to expire at the end of November, reflecting growing demand for upside exposure. Election-day-related options have also risen, with implied volatility surging, analysts noted."We expect the spot price of bitcoin to chop around the current range until we get more clarity on the election results this week, where a Trump win is likely to cause a knee-jerk reaction higher, and vice versa if Kamala wins," the QCP Capital analysts added.In the broader cryptocurrency market, bitcoin was last changing hands for around $68,500, trading flat over the past 24 hours, according to The Block's Price Page. Meanwhile, the GMCI 30 index, representing a selection of the top 30 cryptocurrencies, has risen roughly 0.58% over the past 24 hours to 120.65.

Bitcoin Hovers Above $68,500 as Weekend Dip Prompts $230 Million in Liquidations Before US Election

Analysts at Bernstein raise their bitcoin price estimate to $50,000 if Harris wins the election, while keeping it at $80-90K if Trump wins. They predict a price target of $200,000 by the end of 2025 regardless of the election outcome. The primary drivers of bitcoin's price are U.S. fiscal indiscipline, record debt levels, and monetary expansion. The success of U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds further accelerates the demand for hard assets. Short-term volatility is expected depending on the election result.

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein predict a price target of $200,000 by the end of 2025, regardless of Tuesday’s U.S. election outcome.Republican Donald Trump is seen as the pro-crypto candidate compared to Kamala Harris’s potential continuation of the Democrats’ hawkish crypto stance over the last four years, although the party has shown a marked change in tone over the past few months.Bitcoin’s primary drivers are U.S. fiscal indiscipline, record debt levels and monetary expansion, driving up demand for hard assets, and the success of U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds further accelerates this trend with enough headroom for growth, the analysts said. “The bitcoin genie is out of the bottle, and it is hard to reverse this course. Our bitcoin price target for the end of 2025 remains $200,000 independent of the election outcome.”Amid convergence in Polymarket odds over the weekend, Chhugani warned of short-term volatility in either direction, depending on who gets to enter the Oval Office.Following Selzer’s Iowa poll, 3% in favor of the Democratic candidate, Trump’s advantage over Harris on Polymarket narrowed to around 11% from a 33% gap on Oct. 30. Trump currently leads Harris by 57.9% to 42.1% odds of winning the presidential race on the decentralized predictions platform, with its $3.1 billion in trading volume on the outcome making it by far the largest prediction market. The gap on the regulated Kalshi platform is 54% to 46% in Trump’s favor, having nearly drawn level at one point on Sunday. However, national polling averages remain close, showing a 1% lead for Harris, within the margin of error, the analysts noted.Bitcoin dipped 7% from around $73,500 on Oct. 29 to currently change hands for $68,596, according to The Block’s Bitcoin Price Page.“To anyone who was suggesting Polymarket data is manipulated with a Trump bias, we believe we had enough proof over the weekend to suggest that it behaves just like any public market, and it is easy for the traders to get spooked with incremental poll data,” Chhugani said.Harris also gained a brief 2% lead in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania, though this has since swung back to 14% in Trump's favor. Trump also leads in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada on Polymarket, while Harris leads in Wisconsin and Michigan.Victory for either candidate is not priced in, Bernstein analysts claim. They reiterate that they expect bitcoin to break all-time highs of nearly $74,000 and reach $80,000 to $90,000 following a Trump win in the run-up to inauguration day on Jan. 20. However, a Harris win could see bitcoin drop to $50,000 over the same period before any recovery, they said, up from their previously predicted $30,000 to $40,000 range in that scenario.BRN analyst Valentin Fournier said the recent market correction largely stemmed from profit-taking and a temporary decline in spot bitcoin ETF flows. However, Fournier remained optimistic about a potential year-end rally, with the possibility of a new all-time high for bitcoin in the coming weeks.Some have argued that a Harris win could be positive for Ethereum amid ether's significant underperformance in 2024 as the U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs could be the last approved under a tougher regulatory regime, avoiding competition from Solana or any other new investment products.However, the Bernstein analysts said this was “zero-sum thinking,” and a constructive Securities and Exchange Commission would open opportunities for all crypto assets beyond bitcoin.The utility of blockchains like Ethereum and Solana relies on favorable regulations for stablecoins, asset tokenization and crypto classification. Bipartisan support and a crypto-friendly SEC are essential, with Trump favoring pro-crypto policies, while Harris supports ownership but lacks detailed plans, Chhugani said.Bitcoin mining will also remain in focus due to its domestic production potential and energy sourcing for AI compute. Regardless of the election outcome, mining is expected to thrive, but Chhugani added that a pro-mining policy could boost investor interest beyond the energy/AI narrative.Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies. Certain affiliates of Bernstein act as market makers or liquidity providers in the debt securities of bitcoin miner Riot Platforms.

Bernstein Raises Bitcoin Price Estimate for Harris Win to $50,000, Keeps Trump at $80-90K

<img src='https://sosovalue.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/sosovalue/web3image/24/11/05/4ssgtmslwo3b.png'/>Bitcoin struggles to reclaim $70,000 ahead of the US election, but analysts agree that volatility will be present before and after the election result is announced.

This week, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility, with major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) seeing price declines. Bitcoin briefly fell below $68,000, reaching a low of $67,574, before slightly recovering to $69,100. Ethereum also dipped below $2,500, hitting a low of $2,412, and is currently trading at around $2,470. Other cryptocurrencies like Solana (SOL) and Dogecoin (DOGE) also faced similar declines and minor recoveries. Market sentiment is influenced by the upcoming U.S. elections and the FOMC meeting, with investors anticipating that potential interest rate cuts could drive cryptocurrency market prices higher. Reddit sold its crypto assets, realizing a profit of $6.90 million, while several blockchain projects will unlock $2.60 billion worth of digital assets in November. Despite the market fluctuations, the overall sentiment in the crypto market remains optimistic.

Table of ContentsThe Week AheadBitcoin (BTC) Price Drop Leads To LiquidationsReddit Sells Crypto StashCrypto Projects To Unlock $2.6 Billion In NovemberBitcoin (BTC) Price AnalysisEthereum (ETH) Price AnalysisSolana (SOL) Price AnalysisDogecoin (DOGE) Price AnalysisRipple (XRP) Price AnalysisPolkadot (DOT) Price AnalysisInjective (INJ) Price AnalysisBitcoin (BTC) briefly fell below $68,000, plunging to a low of $67,574 on Sunday as buyers struggled to hold on to $68,000 following the emergence of mixed signals. The drop marks a significant pullback from above $73,500, with recent daily candles representing considerable selling pressure, indicating a bearish outlook. BTC has since recovered to climb above $69,000 and is trading around $69,100, up by almost 1%.Ethereum (ETH) also slipped below the crucial $2,500 level after reporting a significant decline on Sunday and plunging to a low of $2,412 earlier today before recovering. ETH has also recovered since but has been unable to push above $2,500 thus far, trading around the $2,470 price level. Other major cryptocurrencies, including Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), Toncoin (TON), Ripple (XRP), and others, have also reported marginal recoveries after declining on Sunday. The overall crypto market cap reported an increase of 0.62% and currently sits at 0.62%.Speaking about the prevailing market sentiment on the eve of the US elections,ChangeNOWCMO Pauline Shangett stated,Further elaborating on BTC’s performance, Shangett stated,The Week AheadThe crypto markets are bracing for one of the most crucial weeks of the year, with speculations on the outcome of key events leading to considerable price declines. As a result, almost all major cryptocurrencies traded in the red at some point over the weekend. BTC slipped below $68,000, reporting a substantial decline from $73,500, while Ethereum (ETH) fell below $2,500 and dropped to a low of $2,412 before recovering. The drop in prices led to significant liquidations in the derivatives markets, with data from CoinGlass showing nearly $240 million liquidated from the markets, impacting over 100,000 traders, with the largest liquidation happening on OKX.Sentiment on betting platforms like Polymarket added to the volatility. With the election just a day away, Polymarket reported a 6% decline for Republican candidate Donald Trump. Meanwhile, the upcoming FOMC meeting is scheduled for November 7. During the previous meeting, the committee slashed interest rates by 50 basis points, leading to a strong recovery in risk assets such as BTC. According to market watchers, investors anticipate another rate cut of 25 basis points following the November meeting. If the rates are slashed as expected, the crypto market could see another uptick in prices, thanks to increased demand for risk assets such as crypto.Despite recent volatility and a price drop, the overall sentiment in the crypto market remains bullish.Bitcoin (BTC) Price Drop Leads To LiquidationsBitcoin's (BTC)price drop led to almost $250 million in bullish bets liquidated thanks to continuous profit-taking ahead of the weekend leading to a market retreat. As a result, BTC dropped from over $70,000 to just over $69,000, with prices reporting a further decline over the weekend. As a result of the drop, bets on BTC-tracked futures reported losses of over $88 million. ETH futures reported liquidations worth $44 million, while Solana (SOL) and Dogecoin (DOGE) futures reported liquidations worth $15 million each. Almost 90% of all bets were bullish, with traders expecting higher prices over the weekend ahead of the US presidential elections.Reddit Sells Crypto StashReddit. A leading social media platform and one of the most popular discussion forums for crypto has offloaded a significant chunk of its digital asset holdings in the third quarter of 2024, the platform disclosed in its latest regulatory filing. The sale of its stash allowed the company to register a tidy profit of $6.9 million, its first profit since its inception. Reddit revealed its crypto investment in February 2024 in an IPO filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, stating it has invested some cash reserves in cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Polygon (MATIC).Reddit has maintained a strong association with crypto and was one of the earliest platforms to experiment with blockchain technology. In 2020, the company introduced an Ethereum-based community points system through digital assets involving two tokens, MOON and BRICK, which were used to incentivize contributions within subreddits. Reddit also developed a blockchain-based wallet called Vault which allowed users to manage tokens and other digital collectibles.However, in its latest filing, the company acknowledged the industry’s potential but was worried about uncertainties surrounding their long-term adoption. It also reinforced its pessimistic stance by updating its investment policy to require board approval for future crypto purchases.Crypto Projects To Unlock $2.6 Billion In NovemberDigital assets worth $2.6 billion will enter the markets in November following the expiration of vesting periods for several blockchain projects. According to data tracker Tokenomist, $2.68 billion in crypto assets will be unlocked in November, of which $900 million will be unlocked on a cliff basis, and $1.7 billion will be unlocked linearly. Some noteworthy unlocks include projects such as Memecoin (MEMECOIN), Arbitrum (ARB), Aptos (APT), Avalanche (AVAX), and Optimism (OP).Bitcoin (BTC) Price AnalysisBitcoin (BTC)has slipped back below $69,000 as buyers struggle to build momentum, faced with uncertain market indicators. The world’s largest cryptocurrency registered a significant slump over the weekend, collapsing after reaching a high of $73,600 and slipping below $70,000 on November 1, shortly after MicroStrategy announced plans to raise $42 billion to purchase BTC. BTC is only marginally up as it struggles to reclaim $69,000. BTC has historically dived before US elections, a fact that has puzzled analysts and investors. While some interpret the decline as a worrying sign, history suggests the opposite, with analysts stating short-term dips do not cancel the strong momentum that follows after the elections.Political uncertainty often impacts the market, and it's the same for crypto. As election day approaches, markets are bracing for a shift in regulatory policy, leading to significant price declines, a pattern witnessed in previous election cycles as well. This was seen in the 2016 and 2020 elections when BTC dipped over 6% in the days leading up to them. However, the pre-election dip often leads to significant gains following the election. Institutional interest in BTC has also grown, allowing the asset to cement its reputation as a safe haven asset. The surging popularity of spot Bitcoin ETFs continues to drive demand among institutional investors.As we can see in the price chart, BTC has seen a substantial decline after reaching $73,512 last week, having slipped below $70,000. Buyers are now struggling to keep the asset above $69,000 and build momentum to recover as uncertainty in the market continues to grow. BTC started the previous week on a positive note, rising almost 3% on Monday to settle at $69,761. It pushed above $70,000 after registering an increase of 4.11%, reaching an intraday high of $73,512 before settling at $72,627.Source:TradingViewHowever, despite coming close to settling a new all-time high, BTC fell back, dropping marginally on Wednesday as sentiment began changing. Bearish sentiment intensified on Thursday as BTC dropped almost 3% to $70,307. Buyers attempted a recovery on Friday, looking to keep BTC above $70,000. As a result, the price reached an intraday high of $71,632 before falling back and dropping just over 1% to slip below $70,000 to $69,572. The weekend saw BTC remain muted as it registered a marginal increase on Saturday before falling to a low of $67,625 on Sunday. However, it recovered to climb back above $68,000 and settle at $68,907, still a decline of almost 1%.The current session sees BTC marginally up as buyers look to push the price above $69,000. With the US election almost upon us, market volatility is expected. Analysts believe a pre-election decline was expected, and markets could recover following the election, irrespective of the result. If BTC remains bearish, it could slip back to $68,000. A break below this level could lead to substantial losses. On the other hand, a bullish reversal could see BTC leapfrog $70,000, potentially setting a new all-time high. Analysts expect a bullish reversal to propel BTC to $80,000 by the end of November.Ethereum (ETH) Price AnalysisEthereum (ETH)is struggling to recover after witnessing a substantial decline that saw the price slip below $2,500, a crucial level, and the 20 and 50-day SMAs. As we can see in the price chart, ETH started the previous week on a positive note, rising by 2.43% on Monday to go above the 20-day SMA and settle at $2,556. Bullish sentiment intensified on Tuesday as ETH rose by 2.76% to go above $2,600 and settle at $2,637. Buyers also attempted to push above $2,700 but could not, losing steam after reaching an intraday high of $2,680. Volatility increased on Wednesday as buyers and sellers sought to establish control. As a result, ETH dropped to a low of $2,599 and reached a high of $2,722 before settling at $2,659 after an increase of 0.77%.Source:TradingViewHowever, market sentiment changed on Thursday as ETH registered a substantial drop of 5.35% to slip below the 20 and 50-day SMAs and settle at $2,516. Friday saw another surge in volatility as buyers attempted a recovery and sellers looked to drag ETH below $2,500. Ultimately, ETH registered a marginal decline and settled at $2,512. Bullish sentiment intensified over the weekend as ETH slipped below $2,500 after a drop of 0.79% and settled at $2,492. Sellers dragged ETH to an intraday low of $2,412 as they looked to drop the price below $2,400. However, the price recovered from this level and settled at $2,456, eventually registering a decline of $2,456. The current session sees ETH up by 0.78% as buyers look to push the price back above $2,500.If markets recover and buyers maintain control, ETH could push back above $2,500. A bullish reversal could see ETH push above the 20 and 50-day SMAs towards $2,700. On the other hand, if ETH continues to decline, we could see the price drop to $2,400.Solana (SOL) Price AnalysisSolana (SOL) has continued to decline, with sellers looking to drive the price below the $160 support level. Like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), SOL started the previous week on a bullish note but faced considerably more volatility as sellers sought to drag the price below $170. However, SOL recovered from a low of $172 to register an increase of 0.96% and move to $178. Buyers attempted to push above $180 on Tuesday, reaching an intraday high of $183. However, buyers lost momentum thanks to intense selling pressure at this level and fell below $180 to settle at $179 after a marginal increase. With the resistance at $180 coming into play, SOL fell back in the red on Wednesday, dropping by 2.44% and settling at $174.Source:TradingViewBearish sentiment intensified on Thursday as SOL dropped almost 4%, slipped below $170, and settled at $168. Buyers attempted to reclaim $170 on Friday as SOL rose to an intraday high of $174. However, buyers lost momentum at this level, allowing sellers to regain control and push SOL down 1.45% to $166. Saturday saw a surge in volatility as sellers attempted to drag SOL below $160, with the price dropping to an intraday low of $162. However, buyers countered the selling pressure and pushed SOL back to $166. Bearish sentiment returned on Sunday as SOL fell by 2.20%, dropping below $160 before recovering and settling at $162. The current session sees SOL marginally down as sellers look to breach the $160 support level.If SOL continues to decline and slip below $160, a drop to $150 can be expected. However, if buyers regain control, they will look to push SOL back above $170 and retest the resistance at $180.Dogecoin (DOGE) Price AnalysisDogecoin (DOGE)registered a significant jump of over 11% on Monday, pushing above $0.150 and settling at $0.160. Buyers retained control on Tuesday as DOGE rose by 9.32% to go above $0.170 and settle at $0.175. Buyers also attempted to push above $0.180 but were unsuccessful, reaching $0.179 before dropping back. With strong resistance prevailing at $0.180, DOGE fell back into the red on Wednesday, dropping 4.55% to slip below $0.170 and settle at $0.165. Thursday saw an uptick in volatility as buyers attempted a recovery and sellers sought to lower the price. Eventually, sellers gained the upper hand as DOGE dropped by almost 4% and settled at $0.161.Source:TradingViewVolatility increased on Friday as buyers attempted to reclaim $0.170 and reached an intraday high of $0.169. However, they lost momentum at this level, allowing sellers to take control and push DOGE to a low of $0.154 before it settled at $0.159. DOGE registered a marginal recovery of 0.63% on Saturday and rose to $0.160. However, it fell back in the red on Sunday as sellers dragged the price to an intraday low of $0.142, below the $0.150 support level. DOGE recovered from this level to push back above $0.150 and settle at $0.151, a decline of almost 6%. The current session sees DOGE marginally down as sellers look to drive the price below $0.150.Ripple (XRP) Price AnalysisRipple (XRP)recovered strongly after dropping to a low of $0.487 on October 26, pushing above $0.50 the following weekend. As a result, it started the previous week on a positive note, rising by 0.46% on Monday and 1.72% on Tuesday to settle at $0.527. However, with the moving averages acting as resistance, XRP fell back on Wednesday, dropping just over 1% to $0.522. Bearish sentiment intensified on Thursday as XRP fell to $0.509 after a drop of 2.39%. However, it recovered on Friday thanks to support at lower levels, rising to an intraday high of $0.524 before settling at $0.513 after an increase of 0.61%.Source:TradingViewThe weekend saw bearish sentiment return as XRP dropped by 0.55% to $0.510. Sellers dragged XRP below $0.50 as it fell to an intraday low of $0.491. However, it recovered thanks to intense support at this level to push back above $0.50 and settle at $0.503. The current session sees XRP up by 0.52%, trading around $0.505.Polkadot (DOT) Price AnalysisPolkadot (DOT) seems to have lost its support at $4, with its price struggling to recover as sellers drag it towards its multi-year support at $3.62. DOT registered a similar drop after failing to push above $4.50 on October 20. By October 25, it had dropped to a low of $3.84 before rising to $3.99. However, DOT recovered from this level, rising to $4.13 by the end of the previous weekend. It started the previous week on a volatile note as buyers and sellers struggled to establish control. As a result, it dropped to an intraday low of $4 and rose to an intraday high of $4.22 before settling back at $4.13. Buyers took the initiative on Tuesday and pushed DOT up 1.45% to $4.19. Buyers also attempted to go above the 20-day SMA but could not do so.Source:TradingViewWith the 20-day SMA acting as a dynamic level of resistance, bullish sentiment waned on Wednesday, and DOT could register only a marginal increase and push to $4.20. However, bearish sentiment returned to the market on Thursday as DOT plummeted almost 7%, slipping below its crucial support level of $4 and settling at $3.96. Buyers attempted a recovery on Friday, with market watchers expecting DOT to reclaim $4. However, sellers overwhelmed buyers and pushed DOT down 1.26% to $3.91. The weekend saw an increase in volatility as sellers attempted to drive DOT lower while buyers attempted a recovery. As a result, DOT fell to an intraday low of $3.82 before recovering and settling at $3.90 after a marginal decline. Bearish sentiment intensified on Sunday as DOT fell to an intraday low of $3.65, bringing its multi-year support of $3.62 into focus.DOT recovered from this level as buyers entered the market, eventually settling at $3.78 after a decline of over 3%. The current session sees DOT marginally down as sellers continue to lower the price. DOT could recover should market sentiments improve following the US elections. In such a scenario, we could see DOT rebound from its multi-year support to push back above $4 and go towards $4.50.Injective (INJ) Price AnalysisInjective (INJ) has been in the red since failing to push above the 20 and 50-day SMAs and $20 on Tuesday, despite reaching an intraday high of $20.50 and settling at $20.26. With the moving averages acting as a dynamic resistance level, INJ fell back on Wednesday, dropping by almost 2% to $19.87. Bearish sentiment intensified on Thursday as INJ dropped over 4% to $19.05. Buyers attempted a recovery on Friday as INJ rose to an intraday high of $19.79 before losing momentum. As a result, sellers took control and pushed INJ below $19, dropping it to $18.71 after a decline of 1.79%.Source:TradingViewThe weekend saw bearish sentiment intensify as INJ dropped over 4% on Saturday, slipping below $18 and settling at $17.93. INJ registered a bigger drop on Sunday as it plummeted to an intraday low of $16.09 before recovering. However, it could not push back above $17 and settled at $16.85, registering a drop of just over 6%. The current session sees sellers maintain their stranglehold over INJ, with the price down by 1.31% and trading at $16.63.Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Cryptocurrency Market Volatility: Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices Decline, Market Sentiment Affected by the U.S. Election

It was less than a week ago when the primary cryptocurrency skyrocketed to $73,500 for the first time since the all-time high registered in March this year. The landscape seems entirely different now, and the question of what has changed pops up. After the Friday fall to under $69,000, it jumped to $71,600 later that day. However, it went on the retreat once again and currently struggles at $67,700, which means that it has lost about $4,000 since Friday evening. Although there’s no certainty behind the reasoning, the most obvious one points to the US presidential elections and the recent drop in odds for Donald J. Trump. Recent history shows that the US elections, as well as the local economy state, have resulted in massive volatility for bitcoin. Consequently, even though it’s still uncertain who will win on Tuesday, chances are that there will be tons of fluctuations for BTC and the altcoins, so traders should be wary.

It was less than a week ago when the primary cryptocurrency skyrocketed to $73,500 for the first time since the all-time high registered in March this year.The landscape seems entirely different now, and the question of what has changed pops up.The chart above paints a clear and painful picture of BTC’s recent price moves. As mentioned above, it came $150 away from charting a new all-time high on Tuesday but lost a lot of the momentum in the following days.After the Friday fall to under $69,000, it jumped to $71,600 later that day. However, it went on the retreat once again and currently struggles at $67,700, which means that it has lost about $4,000 since Friday evening.Although there’s no certainty behind the reasoning, the most obvious one points to the US presidential elections and the recent drop in odds for Donald J. Trump.The former president made a 180 turn regarding the cryptocurrency industry and has become a vocal supporter now, making numerous promises like allowing bitcoin mining to thrive in the US and even hinting at purchasing BTC for US reserves.His odds to win the election on Tuesday, however, declined hard in the past few days. According to data from ElectionBettingOdds, Trump has lost 9.8% in the past week, most of which happened since Friday. He is still in the lead, but only by 51.7% against 47.9% for Kamala Harris.The blockchain-based alternative Polymarket shows an even more dire picture. Trump’s odds peaked at 66.9% on Wednesday against 33.1% for Harris but have changed to 53.7% and 46.4%, respectively. This means that the Republican has lost more than 13% in just a few days.Recent history shows that the US elections, as well as the local economy state, have resulted in massive volatility for bitcoin. Consequently, even though it’s still uncertain who will win on Tuesday, chances are that there will be tons of fluctuations for BTC and the altcoins, so traders should be wary.

Is This Why Bitcoin’s Price Lost $4K in 2 Days?

As former President Donald Trump's odds of victory on prediction markets have slipped following a spate of positive polling results for Democrats, even falling briefly below Vice President Kamala Harris' odds of victory on US-regulated market Kalshi, Bitcoin's price has fallen and volatility has widely increased. Forward volatility for BTC and ETH spiked overnight, with Bitcoin's volatility now sitting at 80.30%, up from 72.20%, and Ethereum's at 82.92%, up from 75.40%, according to an analysis from Derive.xyz (formerly Lyra) founder Nick Forster. The price of Bitcoin had fallen from a recent high of about $72,600 on Oct. 31 to a low of about $67,500, a 7% drop, before recovering slightly to its current price of about $68,600 at time of publishing, according to The Block's Bitcoin Price Page. If Bitcoin were to hold steady at this price, Forster's analysis projects a 68% chance of the world's largest cryptocurrency rising as high as $75,400 or as low as $62,500 following the election. What's more, Forster predicted a 5% chance of Bitcoin dropping below $57,000 or rising above $83,000 due to the increased forward volatility. Ethereum, which has seen a similar -9.2% drop in price since its value on Oct. 30 to its current value of about $2,450, has a 66% chance of rising as high as $2,700 or falling as low as $2,222, according to Forster's analysis, a slightly wider range than that of Bitcoin. The 5% likelihood case sees the price falling below $2,000 or rising above $2,975. A Standard Chartered analyst also recently predicted high volatility in crypto prices surrounding the U.S. Presidential election on Tuesday.

As former President Donald Trump's odds of victory on prediction markets have slipped following a spate of positive polling results for Democrats, even falling briefly below Vice President Kamala Harris' odds of victory on US-regulated market Kalshi, Bitcoin's price has fallen and volatility has widely increased.Forward volatility for BTC and ETH spiked overnight, with Bitcoin's volatility now sitting at 80.30%, up from 72.20%, and Ethereum's at 82.92%, up from 75.40%, according to an analysis from Derive.xyz (formerly Lyra) founder Nick Forster ."This escalation reflects traders are bracing for the election results, which could sway market prices substantially," Forster wrote. Forster projected a two-in-three likelihood that election night will lead to big swings in price "...ranging between -8.97% and +9.85% for BTC, and slightly wider swings for ETH, from -9.25% to +10.19%."The price of Bitcoin had fallen from a recent high of about $72,600 on Oct. 31 to a low of about $67,500, a 7% drop, before recovering slightly to its current price of about $68,600 at time of publishing, according to The Block's Bitcoin Price Page.If Bitcoin were to hold steady at this price, Forster's analysis projects a 68% chance of the world's largest cryptocurrency rising as high as $75,400 or as low as $62,500 following the election. What's more, Forster predicted a 5% chance of Bitcoin dropping below $57,000 or rising above $83,000 due to the increased forward volatility."Total call open interest for BTC stands at 1,179 compared to 885 puts, clearly signaling the market’s bullish inclination despite potential volatility," Forster noted.Ethereum, which has seen a similar -9.2% drop in price since its value on Oct. 30 to its current value of about $2,450, has a 66% chance of rising as high as $2,700 or falling as low as $2,222, according to Forster's analysis, a slightly wider range than that of Bitcoin. The 5% likelihood case sees the price falling below $2,000 or rising above $2,975.A Standard Chartered analyst also recently predicted high volatility in crypto prices surrounding the U.S. Presidential election on Tuesday.

Bitcoin price falls, forward volatility jumps as traders brace for election: Analyst

在美国选举之前，比特币在重新夺回70,000美元的过程中遇到困难，但分析师一致认为，在选举结果公布前后，市场将会出现波动。

预计美国选举前比特币价格将出现波动：以下是需要关注的价格水平

在美國選舉之前，比特幣在重新奪回70,000美元的過程中遇到困難，但分析師一致認爲，在選舉結果公佈前後，市場將會出現波動。