Fed Governor Waller said that if core inflation data remains high this week, the Fed will need to consider a near-term rate hike.

The view that inflation can fall back to 2% without further rate hikes remains credible. Tariffs, energy prices, and the demand for AI infrastructure are factors driving inflation higher.

[PANews]

Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said Moncday that inflation and interest-rate policy are at a crossroads. There is a chance the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates soon if inflation readings this week disappoint, Waller said in a speech. "If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the [Federal Open Market Committee] will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term," Waller said, in remarks prepared for delivery to the New York Association for Business Economics. Core inflation excludes volatile food and energy prices. The core personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was running at a 3.4% annual rate in May, up from below 3% last October. Waller did not yet seem convinced that rates will need to move higher. "I am committed to returning inflation to the FOMC's 2% goal but also determined to avoid overtightening policy and risking a recession," he said. Waller was one of four finalists to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair this year. His views on monetary policy have been influential since he joined the central bank in 2020. Waller said there was "still a credible case for inflation to begin to fall back to our 2% goal with policy at its current setting." But he added that he also sees "an equally credible case" that data in the coming weeks will show that inflation will remain at its elevated level or even trend higher, requiring tighter monetary policy in the near term. The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% all year. Fed officials are divided over whether they will need to raise rates. At their June meeting, nine Fed officials penciled in a rate hike this year, with six pointing to more than one hike. But nine other officials projected the Fed could keep rates unchanged all year. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not make a forecast. Warsh will testify on the outlook before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. The U.S. government will release June consumer inflation data on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, with wholesale inflation data following on Wednesday. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal project inflation moderated in June as oil prices fell last month after the U.S. and Iran reached a tentative cease-fire. But with that cease-fire deal now crumbling, there is new concern that oil prices will spike and inflation will remain sticky. The high inflation of 2021 continues to weigh on Fed officials. During that year, the Fed did not react to high inflation readings, thinking that inflation was "transitory." Waller said the Fed needed to avoid overreacting and tightening too soon merely because it waited so long last time. But it also needed to avoid repeating the same mistake, he added. Waller said he would be pleased to see lower core readings on inflation this week, but will need to see several months of lower readings to feel that inflation is moving in the right direction. Core inflation is being driven higher by tariffs, energy prices and spillovers from demand fueled by the artificial-intelligence buildout, he noted. "Sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option," Waller said.

.SPX

A Hot Inflation Reading This Week Could Mean a Rate Hike Soon, Fed's Waller Says

.NDX

On July 14 (UTC+8), Federal Reserve Governor Waller said on Monday that when reviewing the inflation data to be released this week, he would pay more attention to the message conveyed by another high inflation reading than he would to lower inflation readings.

Waller said, "We have basically seen inflation readings of 'higher, higher, higher, higher' for nearly five to six months." He also stated, "If another higher number appears, I will consider it a signal, not noise. But if the inflation data goes down, then given that high inflation has occurred for five or six consecutive months, I may need one or two more months of data to conclude: 'Okay, this is indeed a signal.'" (Source: JIN10)

[ME News]

Fed's Waller: A resurgence of high inflation data would be a "signal"

By Greg Robb While declining oil prices will likely bring headline inflation down, core readings excluding energy and food may be sticky Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said inflation and interest-rate policy are at a crossroads. There is a chance the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates soon if inflation readings this week disappoint, Fed governor Christopher Waller said Monday. "If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the [Federal Open Market Committee] will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term," Waller said, in a speech prepared for delivery to the New York Association for Business Economics. Core inflation excludes volatile food and energy prices. The core personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was running at a 3.4% annual rate in May, up from below 3% last October. Waller did not yet seem convinced that rates will need to move higher. "I am committed to returning inflation to the FOMC's 2% goal but also determined to avoid overtightening policy and risking a recession," he said. Waller was one of four finalists to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair this year. His views on monetary policy have been influential since he joined the central bank in 2020. Waller said there was "still a credible case for inflation to begin to fall back to our 2% goal with policy at its current setting." But he added that he also sees "an equally credible case" that data in the coming weeks will show that inflation will remain at its elevated level or even trend higher, requiring tighter monetary policy in the near term. The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% all year. Fed officials are divided over whether they will need to raise rates. At their June meeting, nine Fed officials penciled in a rate hike this year, with six pointing to more than one hike. But nine other officials projected the Fed could keep rates unchanged all year. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not make a forecast. Warsh will testify on the outlook before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. The U.S. government will release June consumer inflation data on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, with wholesale inflation data following on Wednesday. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal project inflation moderated in June as oil prices (CL00) fell last month after the U.S. and Iran reached a tentative cease-fire. But with that cease-fire deal now crumbling, there is new concern that oil prices will spike and inflation will remain sticky. The high inflation of 2021 continues to weigh on Fed officials. During that year, the Fed did not react to high inflation readings, thinking that inflation was "transitory." Waller said the Fed needed to avoid overreacting and tightening too soon merely because it waited so long last time. But it also needed to avoid repeating the same mistake, he added. Waller said he would be pleased to see lower core readings on inflation this week, but will need to see several months of lower readings to feel that inflation is moving in the right direction. Core inflation is being driven higher by tariffs, energy prices and spillovers from demand fueled by the artificial-intelligence buildout, he noted. "Sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option," Waller said. -Greg Robb This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

CLmain

On July 14 (UTC+8), Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated on Monday that if upcoming data indicates inflation remains significantly above the 2% target, the Fed may need to raise interest rates “in the near term.” He described current monetary policy as being at a “crossroads.” Waller noted that the policy direction will be determined by new information—including Tuesday’s CPI report—and emphasized that the Fed is currently in a phase where it should not “let its guard down” should data trends shift unfavorably.

Waller remarked: “At the current policy stance, inflation could still gradually decline toward the 2% target. However, I am equally concerned about an alternative scenario—namely, that data over the coming weeks may show inflation remaining elevated—or even rising further—which would necessitate tighter monetary policy in the near term.” He specifically expressed concern that recent inflation reports suggest price pressures are broadening across the economy, extending beyond last year’s import tariff hikes or recent energy cost increases, potentially reflecting more widespread, systemic inflation—requiring even more restrictive monetary policy.

Waller added, “If core inflation runs hot again this week, the FOMC will have to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term. It will take several months of consistently declining inflation data before we can confidently say inflation is moving in the right direction.” (Jinshi) (Source: Odaily)

[ME News]

Waller Sets the Tone for Tuesday’s CPI Report: Hot Inflation Will Support Near-Term Rate Hikes

Although Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that he does not wish to raise interest rates too early—lest it trigger a recession—he believes the labor market remains stable and that the Fed should avoid repeating the mistake it made several years ago: delaying its response amid rising inflationary pressures.

Waller warned that the current labor market is far less overheated than it was during the Fed’s rate hikes in 2022–2023, and that there are “credible reasons” to expect inflation to continue falling without further policy tightening.

However, he noted that the evidence businesses and investors rely on to anticipate declining inflation is insufficient to justify the Fed waiting—because by the time confidence gradually erodes, the Fed will be forced to hike rates more aggressively to catch up. “We cannot afford to ignore inflation until it vanishes entirely,” he said.

[PANews]

Fed's Waller: Don't want to raise interest rates too early and cause a recession, nor do we want to make mistakes by acting too late.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that the Fed may need to raise interest rates “in the near term” if upcoming data indicates that inflation remains significantly above its 2% target. He described current monetary policy as being at a “crossroads.” Waller noted that the direction of policy will be determined by new information, such as Tuesday’s CPI report; if the data takes an unfavorable turn, the Fed is currently in a phase where it should not “rest on its laurels.”

Waller stated: “At the current policy stance, inflation could still gradually decline toward the 2% target. However, I am equally concerned about an alternative scenario—namely, that data over the coming weeks may show inflation remaining elevated—or even rising further—which would necessitate tighter monetary policy in the near term.” He specifically expressed concern that recent inflation reports suggest price pressures appear to be broadening across the economy, extending beyond the effects of last year’s import tariff hikes or recent energy cost increases, potentially reflecting more widespread, systemic inflation that would require even more restrictive monetary policy.

Waller added, “If core inflation again comes in hot this week, the FOMC will have no choice but to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term. It will take several months of consistently declining inflation data before we can confidently say inflation is moving in the right direction.”

[Odaily]

Woller sets the tone for Tuesday's CPI: Hot inflation will support recent interest rate hikes

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that the Fed may need to raise interest rates “in the near term” if upcoming data shows inflation remains significantly above its 2% target. He described current monetary policy as being at a “crossroads.” Waller stated that this direction will be determined by new information, such as the CPI report released on Tuesday; if the data shows an adverse trend, the Fed is currently in a phase where it should not “become complacent.”

Waller said: “At the current policy stance, inflation could still gradually decline toward the 2% target. However, I am equally concerned about the possibility of an alternative scenario—namely, that data over the coming weeks may show inflation remaining elevated—or even rising further—which would necessitate tighter monetary policy in the near term.”

[PANews]

Wollers sets the tone for Tuesday's CPI: Hot inflation will support recent interest rate hikes

On July 14, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated on Monday that the Fed “in the near term” may need to raise interest rates if upcoming data indicates inflation remains significantly above its 2% target. He described current monetary policy as standing at a “crossroads.”

Waller noted that this direction will be determined by new information—including Tuesday’s CPI report—and emphasized that the Fed is currently in a phase where it should not “become complacent” should data trends take an adverse turn.

Waller said: “Inflation could still gradually decline to the 2% target at the current policy stance. However, I am equally concerned about the alternative scenario—where data over the coming weeks shows inflation remaining elevated—or even rising further—which would necessitate tighter monetary policy in the near term.”

He specifically expressed concern that recent inflation reports suggest price pressures appear to be broadening across the economy, extending beyond the effects of last year’s import tariff hikes or recent energy cost increases, potentially reflecting more widespread, systemic inflation—requiring even more restrictive monetary policy.

Waller added: “If core inflation runs hot again this week, the FOMC will have no choice but to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term. It will take several months of consistently declining inflation data before we can conclude inflation is moving in the right direction.” (Jinshi)

[BlockBeats]

Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated on Monday that if future data suggests that the inflation rate remains significantly above the 2% target, the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates "in the near term." He described the current monetary policy as being at a "crossroads."

Waller said that this direction will be determined by new information such as the CPI report to be released on Tuesday. If there is an unfavorable trend in the data, the Federal Reserve is currently in a phase where it should not "be complacent."

Waller stated: "Under the current policy stance, inflation could still gradually ease back to the 2% target. But I am equally concerned that another scenario may unfold, where data in the coming weeks will show that inflation will remain at a high level, or even continue to rise, which would require a tighter monetary policy in the short term."

He specifically mentioned that he is concerned that recent inflation reports indicate that price pressures seem to be broadening throughout the entire economy, beyond the impact of last year's import tariff increases or the recent rise in energy costs. This may reflect a more widespread systemic inflation that would necessitate a more contractionary monetary policy.

Waller stated, "If the core inflation rate remains hot this week, the FOMC will have to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term. It will take several months of consistently lower inflation data to conclude that inflation is moving in the right direction." (FX Street)

[BlockBeats]

Wall Street Set for Key Tuesday CPI Reading: Hot Inflation to Support Imminent Rate Hike

On July 14 (UTC+8), Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if the core inflation data released this week remains high, the Federal Reserve will need to consider raising interest rates in the near future. Waller said that the recent rise in core inflation is concerning him, with tariffs, rising energy prices, and AI investment demand being the main factors driving up inflation. He expects overall inflation to slow down starting this week, but core inflation will remain a key indicator to watch.

However, Waller also pointed out that if core inflation continues to fall, keeping interest rates unchanged remains a reasonable option. He reiterated that the Federal Reserve is committed to returning inflation to its 2% target while avoiding excessive policy tightening that could lead to a recession.

Furthermore, Waller believes that the US labor market remains robust, close to the Federal Reserve's maximum employment goal, consumer spending and business investment remain strong, and AI-related investment is expected to continue growing. (Source: BlockBeats)

[ME News]

Woller: Core inflation pressures are worrying, AI investment is pushing up prices

On July 14, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if the core inflation data released this week remains high, the Federal Reserve will need to consider raising interest rates in the near future. Waller said that the recent rise in core inflation is concerning him, with tariffs, rising energy prices, and the demand for artificial intelligence investment being the main factors driving up inflation. He expects overall inflation to slow down starting this week, but core inflation will remain a key indicator to watch.

However, Waller also pointed out that if core inflation continues to decline, keeping interest rates unchanged remains a reasonable option. He reiterated that the Federal Reserve is committed to restoring inflation to its 2% target while avoiding a recession caused by overly tight policy.

In addition, Waller believes that the U.S. labor market remains robust, close to the Federal Reserve's maximum employment goal, consumer spending and business investment remain strong, and AI-related investment is expected to continue to grow.

[BlockBeats]

Waller: Core inflation pressures are concerning, and AI investment is driving up prices

July 14th, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if this week's core inflation data remains high, the Fed will need to consider raising interest rates in the near future. Waller expressed concerns about the recent rise in core inflation, citing tariffs, increasing energy prices, and demand for artificial intelligence investment as the main drivers of inflation. He expects overall inflation to slow down starting this week, but core inflation will remain a key indicator to watch.

However, Waller also noted that if core inflation continues to decline, maintaining the interest rate unchanged would still be a reasonable choice. He reiterated that the Fed is committed to bringing the inflation rate back to the 2% target while avoiding policy tightening that could lead to an economic downturn.

Furthermore, Waller believes that the U.S. labor market remains strong, close to the Fed's maximum employment goal, with robust consumer spending and business investment. He expects continued growth in artificial intelligence-related investment.

[BlockBeats]

Powell: Core Inflation Pressure Concerning, AI Investment Driving up Prices

Fed Governor Waller: If core inflation data comes in high again this week, the Fed will need to consider a recent rate hike.

On July 14, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the recent rise in core inflation is quite broad-based, and inflationary pressures are not confined to individual sectors.

Waller also indicated that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may need to consider raising interest rates in the near term.

[BlockBeats]

Fed Governor Waller: FOMC may need to consider raising rates soon

July 14th, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that recently the range of core inflation has risen quite broadly, and inflationary pressures are not limited to individual areas. Waller also mentioned that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may need to consider raising interest rates soon.

[BlockBeats]

Fed Governor Waller: FOMC May Need to Consider Hiking Rates Soon

美联储理事沃勒表示，如果本周核心通胀再次出现高位数据， 美联储将需要考虑近期加息。

通胀无需进一步加息也能回落至2%，这一观点仍具有可信性。关税、能源价格、人工智能建设需求是推动通胀上升的因素。

[PANews]

美联储理事沃勒：若本周核心通胀再次出现高位数据， 美联储将需要考虑近期加息

美聯儲理事沃勒表示，如果本週核心通脹再次出現高位資料， 美聯儲將需要考慮近期加息。

通脹無需進一步加息也能回落至2%，這一觀點仍具有可信性。關稅、能源價格、人工智慧建設需求是推動通脹上升的因素。

[PANews]