📊【xWIN Index|May 18, 2025|7:00 AM JST】
🧮 xWIN Index Score: 63 / 100 (Day-over-day: -2)
This index reflects a short- to mid-term outlook, approximately 1 month ahead.
Details 👉 https://t.co/8kX80aAGSG
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🔍 Market Highlights:
1. 24H Trading Volume: $36.3B (≈352.52K BTC)【▼21.2% from previous day】
→ Significant drop in volume reflects cautious sentiment heading into the weekend.
2. MACD (1-hour chart): Bullish crossover formed
→ Recovered from near-death cross, suggesting a potential short-term reversal. However, upside remains limited.
3. MVRV: 2.27 (▼0.01)|STH MVRV: 1.1 (unchanged)
→ Historically high levels persist. Profit-taking pressure is building.
4. Fear & Greed Index: 68 (▼1|Greed)
→ Optimism continues but signs of a sentiment peak are emerging.
5. Open Interest: 637.42K BTC (▼1.51%)
→ CME OI up to 156.82K BTC (+2.73%). OI/Volume ratio at 1.75 suggests weakening liquidity.
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💵 Stablecoin Insights:
📌 USDT (Tether)
• Market Cap: $151.25B (+0.11%)
• 24H Volume: $60.52B (▼17.58%)
→ Supply continues to grow, but turnover is slowing due to risk-off sentiment.
📌 USDC (Circle)
• Market Cap: $60.88B (+0.13%)
• 24H Volume: $7.11B (▼26.93%)
→ Remains stable, but trading activity has declined notably.
📌 JPYC (JPY-pegged)
• Market Cap: $14.63M (unchanged)
• 24H Volume: $15.8K (▼6.13%)
→ Domestic demand for JPY-pegged stablecoins remains modest but stable.
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🌏 Trending on X (formerly Twitter):
• TOPW rebrands to AsiaStrategy, partners with Sora Ventures for regional BTC treasuries
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs acquired 26,700 BTC in May, vs miner production of 7,200 BTC
• Cathie Wood predicts BTC to reach $1.5M by 2030
• 1 BTC now ≈ 1kg of gold — a symbolic milestone
• Weekly MACD turns bullish (3rd time), historically followed by large rallies
• Institutional demand surging — BlackRock, ARK, and Fidelity increase BTC holdings
• South Korea approves pension fund investment in Bitcoin
• CME gap spotted at $103,500 — historically tends to get filled
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✅ Summary:
• BTC Price: $103,432.51
• MACD shows signs of a short-term reversal; weekly trend remains bullish
• MVRV and STH MVRV at elevated levels = profit-taking risk
• Trading volume and OI are both showing signs of slowdown
→ Index Score: 63 / 100 (Day-over-day: -2)
→ “Tug-of-war between weekend correction and long-term bullish trend”
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📈 Strategy Insights:
• Support Zone: $102,000–$103,000
• Profit-Taking Zone: $106,000–$107,000
• Breakdown Alert: Below $100,000 may trigger deeper decline
→ Heading into the week, favor staggered entries and avoid chasing highs
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