Before the non-farm payroll data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates on the CME has risen to 99.3%.
BlockBeatsSep 5, 2025On September 5th, the US August non-farm payroll data will be released tonight. Prior to this, according to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 99.3%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 0.7%.
On Polymarket, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is relatively conservative, currently at 88.0%.
In addition, derivative contracts used to bet on the Fed's policy direction show that by the end of next year, the Fed will have cumulatively cut interest rates five times (25 basis points each time), reducing the federal funds rate from the current 4.25%-4.50% range to about 3.0%.
[BlockBeats]
Before the non-farm payroll data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates on the CME has risen to 99.3%.
BlockBeatsSep 5, 2025On September 5th, the US August non-farm payroll data will be released tonight. Prior to this, according to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 99.3%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 0.7%.
On Polymarket, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is relatively conservative, currently at 88.0%.
In addition, derivative contracts used to bet on the Fed's policy direction show that by the end of next year, the Fed will have cumulatively cut interest rates five times (25 basis points each time), reducing the federal funds rate from the current 4.25%-4.50% range to about 3.0%.
[BlockBeats]
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