Capital Economics: The Fed's preferred PCE inflation index is expected to be weak

OdailySep 11, 2025
#Macro
Despite the 0.3% month-over-month increase in the US core CPI for August, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the "core PCE inflation index," likely rose by less than 0.2% last month. This is the conclusion analysts reached after studying the CPI and PPI data released this week. If they are correct, the core PCE inflation rate for August may stabilize at 2.9% year-over-year, which may lead the Fed to take a more optimistic view of price pressures at its September meeting. "In short, core PCE inflation will remain on track and no worse than the Fed's June forecast of rising to just over 3% by year-end," wrote Capital Economics analyst Stephen Brown. (金十) [Odaily]
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Capital Economics: The Fed's preferred PCE inflation index is expected to be weak

OdailySep 11, 2025
#Macro
Despite the 0.3% month-over-month increase in the US core CPI for August, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the "core PCE inflation index," likely rose by less than 0.2% last month. This is the conclusion analysts reached after studying the CPI and PPI data released this week. If they are correct, the core PCE inflation rate for August may stabilize at 2.9% year-over-year, which may lead the Fed to take a more optimistic view of price pressures at its September meeting. "In short, core PCE inflation will remain on track and no worse than the Fed's June forecast of rising to just over 3% by year-end," wrote Capital Economics analyst Stephen Brown. (金十) [Odaily]
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