China Securities: US Treasury yields are unlikely to rebound significantly

MetaEraSep 28, 2025
#Macro
On September 28 (UTC+8), China Securities research report pointed out that after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose back to a level of 4.20%. The research report believes that the risk of US bonds is significantly less than last year, and short-term yields may rebound, but the central point will still fall back to 4.00% or even lower by the end of the year, and opportunities can be waited for to intervene. The sharp declines in US bonds in Q4 last year and Q2 this year were both caused by Trump's impact, but the transmission paths were different: after the interest rate cut last year, the main reason was that the expectation of interest rate cuts was suppressed; after the tariffs this year, the main reason was that the term premium was re-evaluated. At present, the risks of trade easing, the restart of interest rate cuts, the decline in credibility, and the suspension of easing are all small. The overall environment for US bonds is better than before, and it is not optimistic that the central point of yields will rise significantly. (Source: Jin10) [Jin10]
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China Securities: US Treasury yields are unlikely to rebound significantly

MetaEraSep 28, 2025
#Macro
On September 28 (UTC+8), China Securities research report pointed out that after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose back to a level of 4.20%. The research report believes that the risk of US bonds is significantly less than last year, and short-term yields may rebound, but the central point will still fall back to 4.00% or even lower by the end of the year, and opportunities can be waited for to intervene. The sharp declines in US bonds in Q4 last year and Q2 this year were both caused by Trump's impact, but the transmission paths were different: after the interest rate cut last year, the main reason was that the expectation of interest rate cuts was suppressed; after the tariffs this year, the main reason was that the term premium was re-evaluated. At present, the risks of trade easing, the restart of interest rate cuts, the decline in credibility, and the suspension of easing are all small. The overall environment for US bonds is better than before, and it is not optimistic that the central point of yields will rise significantly. (Source: Jin10) [Jin10]
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