Macro Outlook Next Week: Gold's Nine-Day Rally Faces the CPI "Guillotine," Will the Bulls Be Buried in the Tenth Week?

MetaEraOct 18, 2025
#Macro
On October 18th (UTC+8), Wall Street finally saw a positive end to a week of anxiety, as Trump's Friday remarks eased trade tensions and regional bank stocks rebounded. Spot gold has achieved a rare nine-week consecutive rise. Wall Street is about to usher in a crucial week for interpreting the truth about American companies: the release of Q3 financial reports will enter its peak, and inflation data will also make a heavy debut. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week: Monday 22:00, US September Conference Board Leading Index MoM; Tuesday, the Federal Reserve holds a payment innovation conference to discuss stablecoins, artificial intelligence and tokenization; 21:00, Fed Governor Waller delivers opening remarks at the Federal Reserve Board Payment Innovation Conference; Wednesday 03:30, Fed Governor Waller delivers closing remarks at the Federal Reserve Board Payment Innovation Conference; Friday 20:30, US September Non-Seasonally Adjusted CPI YoY, US September Seasonally Adjusted CPI/Core CPI MoM, US September Non-Seasonally Adjusted Core CPI YoY; Friday 21:45, US October S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI Preliminary; Friday 22:00, US October University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Final, US October One-Year Inflation Rate Expectations Final, US September New Home Sales Total Annualized.

Federal Reserve officials enter the quiet period before the interest rate meeting. Despite the unresolved shutdown stalemate, recent statements by Federal Reserve officials have prompted investors to increase dovish bets. International spot gold has risen for nine consecutive weeks, the fifth time since the implementation of free currency exchange in the 1970s, but historically there has never been a ten-week consecutive rise in gold prices. In addition to trade tensions, the Fed's dovish rhetoric also supported gold prices this week.

As the US government shutdown continues, the market will focus on the only heavy data next week - the September CPI released on Friday. Regardless of the data performance, investors almost unanimously expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at the October 28-29 meeting, as it has hinted at an imminent end to quantitative tightening. Unless the CPI is significantly overheated, it will be difficult to change the current interest rate expectations. [PANews]

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Macro Outlook Next Week: Gold's Nine-Day Rally Faces the CPI "Guillotine," Will the Bulls Be Buried in the Tenth Week?

MetaEraOct 18, 2025
#Macro
On October 18th (UTC+8), Wall Street finally saw a positive end to a week of anxiety, as Trump's Friday remarks eased trade tensions and regional bank stocks rebounded. Spot gold has achieved a rare nine-week consecutive rise. Wall Street is about to usher in a crucial week for interpreting the truth about American companies: the release of Q3 financial reports will enter its peak, and inflation data will also make a heavy debut. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week: Monday 22:00, US September Conference Board Leading Index MoM; Tuesday, the Federal Reserve holds a payment innovation conference to discuss stablecoins, artificial intelligence and tokenization; 21:00, Fed Governor Waller delivers opening remarks at the Federal Reserve Board Payment Innovation Conference; Wednesday 03:30, Fed Governor Waller delivers closing remarks at the Federal Reserve Board Payment Innovation Conference; Friday 20:30, US September Non-Seasonally Adjusted CPI YoY, US September Seasonally Adjusted CPI/Core CPI MoM, US September Non-Seasonally Adjusted Core CPI YoY; Friday 21:45, US October S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI Preliminary; Friday 22:00, US October University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Final, US October One-Year Inflation Rate Expectations Final, US September New Home Sales Total Annualized.

Federal Reserve officials enter the quiet period before the interest rate meeting. Despite the unresolved shutdown stalemate, recent statements by Federal Reserve officials have prompted investors to increase dovish bets. International spot gold has risen for nine consecutive weeks, the fifth time since the implementation of free currency exchange in the 1970s, but historically there has never been a ten-week consecutive rise in gold prices. In addition to trade tensions, the Fed's dovish rhetoric also supported gold prices this week.

As the US government shutdown continues, the market will focus on the only heavy data next week - the September CPI released on Friday. Regardless of the data performance, investors almost unanimously expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at the October 28-29 meeting, as it has hinted at an imminent end to quantitative tightening. Unless the CPI is significantly overheated, it will be difficult to change the current interest rate expectations. [PANews]

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