On October 19th, on-chain analyst Murphy stated that the fair price of Bitcoin is calculated as the historical cumulative average of mvrv. If the market's valuation level (mvrv) is at the historical average, then the price of BTC should be near this level. Therefore, the fair price is regarded as a "mean reversion center." In the past three cycles of BTC over the last 10 years, the fair price (blue line) has almost always acted as the dividing line between bull and bear cycles. After a bull market starts, even if BTC has a correction, it is highly likely that it will not fall below the blue line; whenever value returns, it will stimulate strong buying.

In this cycle, BTC has been running above the fair price for nearly 2 years. During this period, there were 3 times when it was very close to the blue line: the "sell the news" after the ETF was approved; the unwinding of the yen carry trade in August 24; and the tariff crisis in April 25. However, it has never fallen below the fair price. Under the foundation of a bull market, BTC returning to the fair price is the best buying opportunity. Currently, the blue line is at $97,000.00. If traders believe that the bull market foundation is still there, then buying when BTC approaches 97,000.00 would be extremely cost-effective. If users believe that it has already turned into a bear market, then they can continue to wait for the deep bear moment, and may have the opportunity to pick up cheap chips below $55,000.00. The analysis is only for learning and communication and does not constitute investment advice.