On-chain analyst Murphy said that the current fair price of Bitcoin is about $97,000. This value is calculated based on the historical cumulative average of MVRV, which represents the "reasonable valuation center" of the market in the mean reversion state. In the three cycles of the past decade, the fair price curve (blue line) has almost served as the boundary line between bull and bear markets: even if there is a correction in the bull market stage, BTC has never clearly fallen below the line, and once the price returns to this level, it will often trigger strong buying.

Murphy pointed out that in this cycle, BTC has been running above the fair price for nearly two years. During this period, it has approached the blue line three times but has not fallen below it. These occurred during the "good news landing" stage after the ETF was passed, the yen carry trade liquidation event in August 2024, and the tariff crisis in April 2025. If it is believed that it is still in a bull market structure, when BTC is close to $97,000, it may be a high-cost-effective buying point; if it is judged that the cycle has turned bearish, you can wait for a deeper callback opportunity. The analysis content is for learning and communication only and does not constitute investment advice.