There must be some reasons for the decline, more or less. Let's take a look at it with hindsight.

Internal to the industry

Projects have been in trouble for two consecutive days. On November 3, Balancer, a super-old and well-known DeFi project, was stolen for $116.00 million due to code problems. Balancer belongs to DeFi infrastructure and is older than Uniswap. This kind of code problem has a huge impact on the industry.

On November 4, a financial platform called Stream Finance exploded. The official said that it lost $93.00 million, but the problem is that they don’t know how it was lost, and the official didn’t say. The community speculated that it happened on the day of the "10.11" crash.

There is only so much money in the crypto circle, and $200.00 million has been lost in the past two days.

Looking at the macro level

In fact, looking at the global capital market, the global market fell on November 4. Japanese and Korean stocks, which hit new highs, also fell, and US stocks also fell before the market opened.

The first is the interest rate cut. In the Fed's speech last Wednesday, the certainty of an interest rate cut in December seemed to have decreased again, implying that there was no need to rush to cut interest rates.

Then ETF also had net outflows. Last week, Bitcoin's US stock ETF had a net outflow of $802.00 million, and on Monday, November 3, there was another net outflow of $180.00 million.

There is also an event on November 5, that is, the US Supreme Court will hold oral arguments on the "tariff trial" to hear the legality of Trump's imposition of global tariffs. The uncertainty lies in the fact that if the final ruling is against Trump, the tariffs may be cancelled, and then there will be new policy adjustments.

The US federal government "shutdown" has entered its 35th day, tying the record for the longest "shutdown" in US history. The government shutdown has led institutions to hedge high-risk assets, triggering a sell-off.

Judgment on the bottom of the decline

glassnode issued a market view saying that the market continues to struggle above the short-term holding cost price (approximately $113,000.00), which is a key area for the confrontation between bulls and bears. If it fails to regain this level, it may further fall back to the actual price of active investors (approximately $88,000.00).

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju issued a series of on-chain data last night, stating that the average cost of Bitcoin wallets is $55,900.00, which means that holders have an average profit of approximately 93%. On-chain capital inflows remain strong. The price cannot rise due to weak demand.

10x Research CEO Markus Thielen said after the market fell that Bitcoin is approaching the support line since the crash on October 10. If it falls below $107,000.00, it may fall to $100,000.00.

Chinese crypto KOL Banmu Xia publicly stated today that "the traditional 4-year cycle bull market has ended, and Bitcoin will gradually fall to $84,000.00, and then experience several months of complex shocks. At the end of next year and the beginning of the year, it will follow the bubble of US stocks and rush to $240,000.00."

The only good news at the moment is that historically, Bitcoin has risen on average in November.