In the past week, BTC spot ETFs had a net outflow of approximately 800 million USD, and ETH spot ETFs had a slight net inflow; ETH has been weaker than BTC in the past two weeks, and has been struggling around the 3,900 level. Options are bearish, most on-chain holdings are losing money, but institutions are still increasing their holdings. Altcoins are generally weak, with most falling below the 10/11 lows, waiting for the BTC trend to be confirmed before stabilizing.

On the macro level, the global market is highly volatile but there is no systemic risk for the time being; the PMI of 48.7 has contracted for eight consecutive months, and the supplier index of 54.2 is rising while the price index is falling, which is beneficial. A rate cut in December is uncertain. If non-farm payrolls are continuously lower than 30,000 in the next two months, the probability will be significantly increased; a government shutdown may cause the Federal Reserve to "pause and observe."

US stocks are supported by AI capital expenditures + profits, but valuations are high, and progress that is less than expected may trigger a correction. Pay attention to the 3.75% threshold of the 10Y US Treasury and the progress of the Sino-US rare earth game. The above is a market observation and does not constitute investment advice.

[BitMart]