LNMTrader's Bulletin 📈📋
Friday, June 13, 2025
🍜 SHORT-TERM FORECAST:
🟡 Bitcoin and Greed Index: 54 (Neutral).
⚠️ Important Geopolitical Context:
Israel-Iran conflict escalation (airstrikes reported June 13) is driving market volatility, with Bitcoin dropping ~5% due to risk-off sentiment.
🔸 June 13 (Today):
Bitcoin likely to remain volatile, trading between $100,000–$106,500.
Geopolitical tensions may push prices toward the lower end if risk aversion persists, with support near $100,000.
🔸 June 14 (Tomorrow):
Potential stabilization as markets digest news.
Price may recover slightly to $102,000–$108,000 if no further escalation occurs.
A strong Iranian response could drive it back to $95,000–$100,000.
🔸 June 15 (Sunday):
Assuming de-escalation, Bitcoin could test $105,000–$110,000, supported by ETF inflows and institutional interest.
Persistent conflict may keep it suppressed near $98,000–$103,000.
Disclaimer: The Bitcoin price forecast provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Bitcoin derivatives markets are highly volatile and the coin price can fluctuate significantly. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
☕️ TL;DR: Trading Notes
🔷 Bitcoin slides to $103K as Israel launches airstrikes on Iran:
🔹 Bitcoin Price Drop: Bitcoin fell to $103,000, a nearly 5% decline, after Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on June 12, 2025, dashing hopes for a new all-time high.
▫️ Geopolitical Trigger: Israeli airstrikes targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities and military sites, escalating Middle East tensions and sparking a risk-off market sentiment.
▫️ Market Impact: The broader crypto market saw $1.2 billion in liquidations, with Bitcoin dropping from a 24-hour high of $108,500.
▫️ Iran’s Response: Iran vowed a harsh retaliation, with reports of missile launches, further fueling market uncertainty.
▫️ Safe-Haven Shift: Investors moved to assets like gold and bonds, contributing to the selloff in risk assets like Bitcoin.
▫️ Market Sentiment: Social media reflects bearish sentiment, with some traders anticipating further declines, while others see a potential rebound.
🔷 Will $3B Bitcoin Options Cause Even More Pain Today in Crypto Markets?
🔹 Bitcoin Options Expiry: Over $3.7 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire on June 13, 2025, on Deribit, potentially increasing market volatility.
▫️ Bitcoin Contracts Details: Approximately $3.04 billion in Bitcoin options with a put/call ratio of 0.95, indicating balanced long and short positions, and a max pain point at $107,000.
▫️ Market Context: Spot Bitcoin markets are retreating, with Bitcoin dropping nearly 5% due to geopolitical tensions from Israel-Iran conflict escalation.
▫️ Potential Price Impact: The max pain point suggests losses for many traders if Bitcoin’s price moves toward $107,000 at expiry, potentially triggering forced liquidations.
▫️ Ethereum Options: Around $687 million in Ethereum options are also expiring, with a put/call ratio of 1.20 and a max pain point at $2,700.
▫️ Market Sentiment: Traders are divided on Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory, with some expecting a new all-time high soon, while others anticipate a rejection.
▫️ Geopolitical Influence: The Israel-Iran conflict, including reported Israeli airstrikes, is contributing to a risk-off sentiment, impacting Bitcoin’s price stability.
🔷 Bitcoin Could Jump 20% For Every 1% Liquidity Boost:
🔹 Bitcoin's Q2 Surge: Bitcoin experienced a strong second-quarter rally, aligning with a significant increase in global liquidity, as noted by Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts.
▫️ Liquidity Impact: Coutts suggests that every 1% increase in global liquidity could lead to a 20% price increase for Bitcoin, based on historical correlations.
▫️ Global Liquidity Index: Coutts’ proprietary Global Liquidity Index hit an all-time high on April 10, 2025, after three years of stagnation, followed by a 40% Bitcoin rally in nine weeks.
▫️ US Dollar Influence: The rally coincided with a plummeting US dollar, boosting Bitcoin’s price momentum.
▫️ Moderating Sensitivity: Bitcoin’s sensitivity to liquidity changes may decrease over time, but the 20% per 1% liquidity boost remains a key metric.
▫️ Potential for Panic Buying: Coutts warns of an “oh shit” moment where panic buying could further spike Bitcoin’s price, not fully accounted for in current liquidity-driven models.
🔷 Czech government hit with no-confidence vote over $45M Bitcoin scandal:
🔹 No-Confidence Vote Initiated: Czech Republic’s opposition ANO party called for a no-confidence vote against the government due to a $45 million Bitcoin scandal.
▫️ Bitcoin Donation Controversy: The scandal involves a donation of nearly 500 Bitcoin (worth $45 million) from Tomas Jirikovsky, a convicted criminal who ran an online black market.
▫️ Justice Minister Resignation: Former Justice Minister Pavel Blazek resigned on May 30, 2025, amid pressure over the Bitcoin auction, denying any wrongdoing.
▫️ Government Auction Details: The Czech Justice Ministry sold the donated Bitcoin on May 28, 2025, for 1 billion Czech koruna ($45 million).
▫️ Opposition’s Stance: ANO’s vice chair, Alena Schillerova, announced the no-confidence motion on X, citing corruption concerns, scheduled for Tuesday.
▫️ Political Impact: The scandal threatens Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s coalition ahead of the October 2025 election, though the no-confidence vote is unlikely to pass.
▫️ Police Investigation: The national police’s organized crime unit is probing the scandal for possible money laundering.
▫️ New Minister Appointed: Eva Decroix was sworn in as the new justice minister on June 10, 2025, to restore public trust.