IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS: MONAD — PRICE OUTLOOK & DRIVERS

SoSoScholar Research | Deep On-Chain Analysis
📘 MON mainnet & TGE on Nov 24, 2025 — price catalysts and short-term liquidity signals
📅 Updated: November 6, 2025

After months of anticipation, Monad — the high-performance Layer 1 blockchain — is finally approaching its most pivotal moment. With mainnet and TGE both confirmed for November 24, the market’s attention is shifting rapidly toward how the launch, listings, and liquidity will shape the price of MON in its first trading days.

From Snapshot to Mainnet: Setting the Stage for MON

Monad has spent months preparing for one of the most anticipated mainnet launches of 2025. On October 1, the project executed its network snapshot, marking eligible users for its first airdrop. According to official data, roughly 225,000 on-chain wallets and 5,500 community members successfully passed Sybil screening and qualified to receive MON tokens. Eligible participants include active DeFi users, NFT collectors, and DAO governors across Ethereum — a broad base designed to seed the network with active on-chain participants rather than passive speculators.

The claim window opened in mid-October and closed on November 3 through Privy, a portal that quickly became congested under intense demand. “We wanted the earliest members of our community to have a long-term voice in Monad’s growth,” said Nathan Cha, CMO of Monad Foundation.

Although tokenomics has not yet been publicly disclosed, speculation is already intense. Monad’s architecture — built on parallel execution, enabling theoretical throughput of 10,000 transactions per second — positions it as a potential competitor to both Ethereum and Solana. That combination of EVM compatibility, scalability, and speed has been the core of its narrative momentum ahead of launch.

MON Trading Before the Launch: Speculative Heat Rising

Even before its official debut, MON has become one of the hottest pre-listing assets in the market. On Hyperliquid, perpetual contracts for MON have recorded over $14 million in 24-hour trading volume, with the price hovering near $0.06. At the same time, Kraken confirmed it will list MON on day one of mainnet launch — a major signal of institutional confidence and exchange readiness.

Over on Polymarket, the crowd is betting heavily on MON’s valuation. More than $1.63 million in liquidity has poured into prediction markets estimating MON’s fully diluted valuation (FDV), with most participants wagering that it will surpass $3 billion within 24 hours of launch. This combination of derivative and prediction market activity shows that sentiment is running hot, and the short-term price reaction could be driven less by fundamentals and more by liquidity, leverage, and timing.

Key Drivers That Could Shape MON’s Price

At the core, the initial price behavior of MON will depend on token supply dynamics, liquidity depth, and investor psychology. The lack of public tokenomics means that circulating supply at TGE remains a crucial unknown — if the unlocked supply is small relative to demand, prices could spike sharply at listing. Conversely, if a large portion of airdropped tokens are immediately claimable, sell pressure may hit early.

The Kraken listing represents both a liquidity injection and a volatility amplifier: deeper order books may stabilize trading, but initial market-making spreads could cause wide price swings. Meanwhile, perpetual contract activity on Hyperliquid will magnify any imbalance between longs and shorts, leading to funding rate fluctuations and potential short squeezes.

On-chain, the distribution of MON among early recipients will be key. If top wallets hold a large percentage of the supply, post-launch price action may be vulnerable to coordinated selling or liquidity drain. Monitoring wallet movements from airdrop recipients to exchanges in the first 72 hours will provide early warning signals.

Short-Term Catalysts (0–30 Days)

The most immediate price catalysts center around exchange listings, liquidity incentives, and airdropped token flows. Kraken’s launch pairs, DEX liquidity depth, and cross-exchange arbitrage windows will shape early price discovery.
At the same time, airdrop recipients selling into initial liquidity can create steep price dips — especially if token unlocks for team or investors coincide with mainnet day.

Market sentiment will also play a strong role: Polymarket betting flows, social media buzz, and influencer-driven speculation could sustain short-term volatility. Any delay, congestion, or UX failure on claim mechanisms (as seen during Privy’s earlier congestion) may trigger frustration-driven sell-offs or loss of momentum.

Medium-Term Dynamics (1–12 Months)

Beyond the first weeks, MON’s price will depend less on hype and more on ecosystem fundamentals. The critical question is whether Monad can convert speed and scalability into real user adoption. Metrics such as daily active addresses, TVL, and developer traction will begin to define its intrinsic value.

Integration with major DeFi protocols, cross-chain bridges, and staking mechanisms will add demand-side support. Over time, token utility — including staking, gas fee payments, and protocol-level rewards — could establish sustainable value. However, vesting schedules and unlock calendars remain major overhangs: large cliffs or founder unlocks could trigger sell pressure in the months following TGE.

Finally, MON’s macro correlation to Bitcoin and global crypto liquidity cycles will remain decisive. In bullish macro phases, high-performance L1 tokens often see outsized multiples; in downturns, speculative assets like MON typically face steep drawdowns regardless of fundamentals.

Risk Factors to Watch

The most immediate risk is post-airdrop dumping from early claimants, especially if demand from exchanges cannot absorb selling volume.
Concentrated token ownership or thin order books may exacerbate volatility.
If the Kraken launch liquidity proves shallow or delayed, price dislocation could occur.
On the infrastructure side, any claiming errors, transaction delays, or bridge issues during mainnet rollout could erode user confidence in the network’s readiness.

More broadly, regulatory shifts or delisting threats in key jurisdictions could dampen institutional participation — particularly given the project’s EVM focus and potential overlap with existing regulatory frameworks for Ethereum-like chains.

Strategic Observations: Navigating the Launch Volatility

For sophisticated traders, MON’s launch is as much about timing as conviction.
Entering during the initial liquidity surge may offer quick opportunities — but also exposes positions to extreme slippage and price manipulation. Limit orders and staged entries will likely perform better than market buys in the first hours.

Monitoring on-chain flows from claim wallets to exchanges, Hyperliquid open interest changes, and Kraken orderbook depth can help gauge whether upward momentum is sustainable or nearing exhaustion.
In highly leveraged environments, funding rates and short liquidations often act as short-term price indicators.

Price Outlook Summary

Bullish Scenario (FDV $3.5B–$5B): If tokenomics reveal a limited circulating supply and exchange liquidity is deep, MON could rally above $0.10 in the first 48 hours — especially if Kraken and Hyperliquid volumes continue surging.
Neutral Scenario (FDV $2–$3B): A moderate initial float and mixed market sentiment may stabilize MON near $0.06–$0.08, trading sideways as the ecosystem matures.
Bearish Scenario (FDV <$2B): Large airdrop claims or aggressive early selling could push MON below $0.04, triggering a correction before long-term holders begin accumulating again.

Official Links

🌐 Official Website: https://monad.xyz
🪙 App / Claim Portal: https://app.monad.xyz

🖋 Author: 81pv1mzw95
🔗 X / Twitter: https://x.com/0101977ai
💎 EVM Address: 0x1228260F8c1E23Fd7c257377aEFd568351C07Aa6

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⚠️ This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only — not financial advice or an investment recommendation.