Data from the past decade of financial markets indicate that Bitcoin has demonstrated significant price resilience during geopolitical conflicts, though its safe-haven properties have not been fully confirmed. Recently, amid the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict in the Middle East, Bitcoin's price has remained stable, continuing this characteristic. Historical conflict cases show that institutional capital participation and global adoption are key factors. In the early stages of conflicts, Bitcoin prices often suffer shocks, but in the long term, fiscal expansion, monetary easing, and supply chain disruptions drive inflation expectations higher, benefiting Bitcoin.
After the outbreak of the Israel-Iran conflict in 2025, Bitcoin prices rose counter to the trend, with institutions making large purchases signaling confidence. In 2024, Israel's bombing of the Iranian embassy triggered short-term volatility, followed by price recovery. During the 2023 Gaza war between Israel and Palestine, Bitcoin prices continued to rise, and regulatory shocks did not affect its value. During Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Bitcoin prices surged 16% against the trend, and the Ukrainian government received over 70 million USD in crypto donations.
Internal conflicts in emerging markets have limited impact on Bitcoin. During the 2020 Tigray civil war and the 2021 Myanmar coup, Bitcoin prices instead reached historical highs. The Bitcoin market structure has fundamentally changed, with institutional holdings exceeding 1%, deepening its coupling with traditional finance. During the 2013-2014 conflicts, Bitcoin was still niche, with limited price volatility.
The current Bitcoin market has entered an institutional era, with traditional asset management giants deeply involved, US regulation gradually clarified, and industry summits becoming routine. The impact of armed conflicts on Bitcoin is more complex; increased correlation makes its asset nature tend toward risk preference. Market analysts warn that if conflict escalation triggers a surge in crude oil prices, it could lead to a global panic sell-off of risk assets. The future test lies in whether Bitcoin can continue its resilience gene in this new institution-led era.